2009 · Week 13
Final / OT
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
NO -9
Total
46.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
1.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.047
- 48.1%Success rate41.0%
- +0.231EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.168
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.1%
- +6.47CPOE+1.16
- 45.6%Third-down rate39.7%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 2.36Points / drive1.38
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 55 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 35/49 | 419 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Bell | 16 | 34 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Meachem | 8 | 10 | 142 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 8 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 6 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 2 | 7 | 46 | 1 |
| David Thomas | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 30/42 | 367 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinton Ganther | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mason | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Thomas | 7 | 7 | 100 | 2 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 4 | 5 | 73 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 5 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 5 | 9 | 53 | 1 |
| Rock Cartwright | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Malcolm Kelly | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Marcus Mason | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Marko Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.42