2009 · Week 13

Final / OT

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

33·30

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NO -9

Total

46.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

1.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.047
  • 48.1%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.231EPA / dropback+0.023
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.168
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +6.47CPOE+1.16
  • 45.6%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 2.36Points / drive1.38
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 55 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15WAS @ NO20–19WAS
2021 · W5NO @ WAS33–22NO
2018 · W5WAS @ NO19–43NO
2017 · W11WAS @ NO31–34NO
2015 · W10NO @ WAS14–47WAS
2012 · W1WAS @ NO40–32WAS
2008 · W2NO @ WAS24–29WAS
2006 · W15WAS @ NO16–10WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–WAS
NOQ1 15:00419Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:511047Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 8:1139Punt0–7
WASQ1 6:17857Field goal0–10
NOQ1 2:481260Field goal3–10
WASQ2 12:1439Punt3–10
NOQ2 10:01987Touchdown10–10
WASQ2 5:34978Touchdown10–17
NOQ2 2:1739Punt10–17
NOQ2 1:316-3Touchdown17–17
WASQ2 0:2200End of half17–17
WASQ3 15:00964Field goal17–20
NOQ3 11:0049Turnover on downs17–20
WASQ3 9:22456Touchdown17–27
NOQ3 7:48964Field goal20–27
WASQ3 2:35863Field goal20–30
NOQ4 12:511169Field goal23–30
WASQ4 6:521040Missed field goal23–30
NOQ4 1:52580Touchdown30–30
WASQ4 1:19425Turnover30–30
NOQ4 0:28524Missed field goal30–30
WASOT317Turnover30–30
NOOT736Field goal33–30

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees35/4941921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Bell16342.10
Pierre Thomas6183.00
Devery Henderson133.00
Reggie Bush100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Meachem8101421
Pierre Thomas88640
Devery Henderson68610
Jeremy Shockey46470
Marques Colston27461
David Thomas34310
Reggie Bush46280

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell30/4236731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Quinton Ganther8465.80
Rock Cartwright13393.00
Marcus Mason341.30
Jason Campbell1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Thomas771002
Antwaan Randle El45730
Santana Moss510680
Fred Davis59531
Rock Cartwright34310
Mike Sellers22170
Malcolm Kelly23130
Marcus Mason1160
Marko Mitchell1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -92.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.2%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.42