2024 · Week 15

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

20·19

Saints

New Orleans

QB Jake Haener

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

WAS -7.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-5.4est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapSaints
  • +0.138EPA / play-0.057
  • 48.1%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback-0.071
  • +0.027EPA / rush-0.036
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +4.57CPOE-3.67
  • 45.9%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 67.2%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 2.78Points / drive1.72
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 55 points. NO are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W5NO @ WAS33–22NO
2018 · W5WAS @ NO19–43NO
2017 · W11WAS @ NO31–34NO
2015 · W10NO @ WAS14–47WAS
2012 · W1WAS @ NO40–32WAS
2009 · W13NO @ WAS33–30NO
2008 · W2NO @ WAS24–29WAS
2006 · W15WAS @ NO16–10WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NO
NOQ1 15:004-4Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:071461Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 5:28523Punt7–0
WASQ1 1:47826Punt7–0
NOQ2 12:0236Turnover7–0
WASQ2 11:251163Touchdown14–0
NOQ2 5:383-4Punt14–0
WASQ2 3:386-3Punt14–0
NOQ2 1:31617Punt14–0
WASQ2 0:50318End of half14–0
WASQ3 15:001063Field goal17–0
NOQ3 8:12676Touchdown17–7
WASQ3 5:45850Field goal20–7
NOQ4 14:561031Field goal20–10
WASQ4 11:09510Punt20–10
NOQ4 8:06644Field goal20–13
WASQ4 6:571338Missed field goal20–13
NOQ4 1:551056Touchdown20–19

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels25/3122620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jayden Daniels11666.00
Brian Robinson21653.10
Jeremy McNichols242.00
Chris Rodriguez Jr.122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin710732
Olamide Zaccheaus34360
Dyami Brown34300
Jamison Crowder33270
Zach Ertz22250
Brian Robinson33220
Ben Sinnott1170
John Bates1160
Jeremy McNichols1200
Luke McCaffrey1100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Spencer Rattler10/2113510
Jake Haener4/104901
Cedrick Wilson Jr.1/12110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kendre Miller9465.10
Alvin Kamara5122.40
Jake Haener177.00
Marquez Valdes-Scantling144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquez Valdes-Scantling27640
Alvin Kamara45581
Foster Moreau44391
Dante Pettis25240
Juwan Johnson23120
Kevin Austin Jr.1380
Cedrick Wilson Jr.0100
Kendre Miller0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.53.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%6.3%3.4%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

4.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

35.0%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.84
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-5.36