2024 · Week 15
Final
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
WAS -7.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-5.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.138EPA / play-0.057
- 48.1%Success rate40.6%
- +0.211EPA / dropback-0.071
- +0.027EPA / rush-0.036
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- +4.57CPOE-3.67
- 45.9%Third-down rate36.3%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.78Points / drive1.72
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 55 points. NO are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 25/31 | 226 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 11 | 66 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 21 | 65 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 10 | 73 | 2 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Ben Sinnott | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 10/21 | 135 | 1 | 0 |
| Jake Haener | 4/10 | 49 | 0 | 1 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1/1 | 21 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendre Miller | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Jake Haener | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 5 | 58 | 1 |
| Foster Moreau | 4 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| Dante Pettis | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
35.0%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.84
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-5.36