2008 · Week 2
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 90°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.120EPA / play-0.032
- 48.7%Success rate42.3%
- +0.213EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.080
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.69CPOE-1.49
- 49.2%Third-down rate36.0%
- 65.5%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 2.42Points / drive1.37
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 55 points. WAS are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 22/33 | 216 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 1 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 24/36 | 321 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 21 | 96 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.68