2018 · Week 5
Final
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
NO -5.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.156
- 42.3%Success rate49.9%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.284
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.011
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.2%
- -3.01CPOE+5.42
- 36.2%Third-down rate46.3%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.44Points / drive2.94
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 55 points. NO are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 23/39 | 275 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Thompson | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Maurice Harris | 3 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 6 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Brian Quick | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/29 | 363 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 2 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre'Quan Smith | 3 | 3 | 111 | 2 |
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 5 | 74 | 0 |
| Cameron Meredith | 5 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Austin Carr | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.30
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.48