2018 · Week 5

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Alex Smith

19·43

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -5.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapSaints
  • -0.073EPA / play+0.156
  • 42.3%Success rate49.9%
  • -0.059EPA / dropback+0.284
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.011
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -3.01CPOE+5.42
  • 36.2%Third-down rate46.3%
  • 51.6%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.44Points / drive2.94
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 6–6 since 1999

Meetings average 55 points. NO are 5-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15WAS @ NO20–19WAS
2021 · W5NO @ WAS33–22NO
2017 · W11WAS @ NO31–34NO
2015 · W10NO @ WAS14–47WAS
2012 · W1WAS @ NO40–32WAS
2009 · W13NO @ WAS33–30NO
2008 · W2NO @ WAS24–29WAS
2006 · W15WAS @ NO16–10WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NO
WASQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:54759Touchdown0–6
WASQ1 10:411456Field goal3–6
NOQ1 2:371358Touchdown3–13
WASQ2 10:38540Field goal6–13
NOQ2 8:361085Touchdown6–20
WASQ2 3:4333Punt6–26
NOQ2 2:46162Touchdown6–26
WASQ2 2:36417Punt6–26
NOQ2 1:47522Turnover6–26
WASQ2 1:22316Touchdown13–26
NOQ2 0:2600End of half13–26
NOQ3 15:00574Touchdown13–33
WASQ3 12:23929Turnover13–33
NOQ3 7:4338Touchdown13–40
WASQ3 6:431240Turnover13–40
NOQ3 2:19522Field goal13–43
WASQ4 14:10775Touchdown19–43
NOQ4 10:251261End of half19–43

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith23/3927501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Thompson8172.10
Kapri Bibbs492.31
Alex Smith273.51
Adrian Peterson461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder47550
Paul Richardson45500
Maurice Harris38470
Chris Thompson68450
Adrian Peterson23360
Jordan Reed12210
Vernon Davis23150
Brian Quick1160

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees26/2936330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram16533.32
Alvin Kamara6244.00
Taysom Hill5234.61
Drew Brees210.50
Teddy Bridgewater3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tre'Quan Smith331112
Michael Thomas45740
Cameron Meredith55710
Benjamin Watson44300
Josh Hill22241
Mark Ingram23200
Austin Carr22170
Alvin Kamara34150
Drew Brees1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.30
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+4.48