Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
42
Model margin
+0.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.040EPA / play-0.013
- 42.3%Success rate41.4%
- +0.215EPA / dropback+0.040
- -0.172EPA / rush-0.086
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- 41.2%Third-down rate40.0%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.93Points / drive1.47
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. NYJ are 11-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 21/35 | 272 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 18 | 73 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 18/23 | 231 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 24 | 67 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Chad Pennington | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.29