Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Total
42
Model margin
-1.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.122
- 40.5%Success rate39.5%
- -0.051EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.190
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.4%
- -3.58CPOE-2.82
- 39.3%Third-down rate29.7%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.41Points / drive1.18
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. TEN are 2-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 16/28 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 10 | 55 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 7 | 11 | 100 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jace Amaro | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Owusu | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Whitehurst | 10/24 | 203 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 6/11 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 6 | 10 | 102 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 5 | 93 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Kris Durham | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Coffman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.77
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.16