2014 · Week 15

Final

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

16·11

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3.5

Total

42

Model margin

-1.2est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapTitans
  • -0.074EPA / play-0.122
  • 40.5%Success rate39.5%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.190
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -3.58CPOE-2.82
  • 39.3%Third-down rate29.7%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
  • 1.41Points / drive1.18
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. TEN are 2-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NYJ @ TEN23–10NYJ
2024 · W2NYJ @ TEN24–17NYJ
2021 · W4TEN @ NYJ24–27NYJ
2018 · W13NYJ @ TEN22–26TEN
2015 · W14TEN @ NYJ8–30NYJ
2013 · W4NYJ @ TEN13–38TEN
2012 · W15NYJ @ TEN10–14TEN
2009 · W3TEN @ NYJ17–24NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–TEN
TENQ1 15:00517Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:1138Punt0–0
TENQ1 10:301262Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 3:16628Punt0–3
TENQ2 14:45419Punt0–3
NYJQ2 12:482-1Safety0–5
TENQ2 12:0900Missed field goal0–5
NYJQ2 12:04415Missed field goal0–5
TENQ2 9:2439Punt0–5
NYJQ2 7:581252Field goal3–5
TENQ2 2:0832Punt3–5
NYJQ2 1:36427Punt3–5
TENQ2 0:1300End of half3–5
NYJQ3 15:0036Punt3–5
TENQ3 13:331362Field goal3–8
NYJQ3 6:03566Touchdown10–8
TENQ3 4:34621Field goal10–11
NYJQ3 2:02415Punt10–11
TENQ3 0:11627Punt10–11
NYJQ4 13:0053Punt10–11
TENQ4 9:5438Punt10–11
NYJQ4 8:201360Touchdown16–11
TENQ4 3:09844Turnover on downs16–11
NYJQ4 1:313-2Punt16–11
TENQ4 0:21372End of half16–11

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith16/2817910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson10555.50
Chris Ivory12252.11
Geno Smith4164.00
Percy Harvin11010.00
Bilal Powell188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker7111000
Jeff Cumberland22220
Jace Amaro11200
Bilal Powell22100
Trevor Graham1290
Chris Owusu1180
Chris Ivory1110
Chris Johnson0100
Percy Harvin0300
Jeremy Kerley0200

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Whitehurst10/2420300
Jake Locker6/115700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene16503.10
Dexter McCluster5153.00
Charlie Whitehurst294.50
Bishop Sankey382.70
Jake Locker273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington6101020
Delanie Walker45930
Bishop Sankey11180
Kris Durham13140
Shonn Greene11130
Dexter McCluster2480
Leon Washington1420
Derek Hagan0500
Chase Coffman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.9%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.16