2015 · Week 14

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

8·30

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 67°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYJ -8

Total

43

Model margin

+6.8est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJets
  • -0.103EPA / play+0.025
  • 41.1%Success rate41.9%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback+0.126
  • -0.200EPA / rush-0.144
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +0.30CPOE-1.27
  • 32.1%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 67.5%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
  • 1.32Points / drive1.90
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. NYJ are 11-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NYJ @ TEN23–10NYJ
2024 · W2NYJ @ TEN24–17NYJ
2021 · W4TEN @ NYJ24–27NYJ
2018 · W13NYJ @ TEN22–26TEN
2014 · W15NYJ @ TEN16–11NYJ
2013 · W4NYJ @ TEN13–38TEN
2012 · W15NYJ @ TEN10–14TEN
2009 · W3TEN @ NYJ17–24NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:001480Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 9:1230Punt0–7
NYJQ1 8:45526Missed field goal0–7
TENQ1 5:3035Punt0–7
NYJQ1 3:53851Field goal0–10
TENQ1 0:47430Turnover0–10
NYJQ2 13:331026Field goal0–13
TENQ2 9:2236Punt0–13
NYJQ2 7:36772Touchdown0–20
TENQ2 4:1859Punt0–26
NYJQ2 1:44169Touchdown0–27
TENQ2 1:35722End of half0–27
TENQ3 15:00518Punt0–27
NYJQ3 12:45835Punt0–27
TENQ3 8:11891Touchdown8–27
NYJQ3 4:09719Punt8–27
TENQ4 14:53744Turnover on downs8–27
NYJQ4 10:35415Punt8–27
TENQ4 8:4036Punt8–27
NYJQ4 8:06946Field goal8–30
TENQ4 2:421261Turnover on downs8–30

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota21/3927401
Antonio Andrews1/14110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dexter McCluster4123.00
Antonio Andrews482.00
Marcus Mariota331.00
David Cobb210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker713710
Harry Douglas37650
Dorial Green-Beckham37530
Marcus Mariota11411
Dexter McCluster45380
Andrew Turzilli22250
Phillip Supernaw12160
Antonio Andrews1260
Anthony Fasano0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick21/3626330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory221014.60
Bilal Powell33612.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick3237.70
Stevan Ridley6233.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall6101251
Eric Decker710741
Bilal Powell55461
Quincy Enunwa13100
Chris Ivory1260
Jeff Cumberland0100
Devin Smith0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.1%5.9%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.9%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.81