Closing spread
NYJ -8
Total
43
Model margin
+6.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play+0.025
- 41.1%Success rate41.9%
- -0.050EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.200EPA / rush-0.144
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.3%
- +0.30CPOE-1.27
- 32.1%Third-down rate40.9%
- 67.5%Red-zone TD rate70.2%
- 1.32Points / drive1.90
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. NYJ are 11-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 21/39 | 274 | 0 | 1 |
| Antonio Andrews | 1/1 | 41 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Andrews | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| David Cobb | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 7 | 13 | 71 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 3 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 3 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 1 | 41 | 1 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Andrew Turzilli | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Phillip Supernaw | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Antonio Andrews | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/36 | 263 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 22 | 101 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 6 | 10 | 125 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 7 | 10 | 74 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 5 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Smith | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.81