2026 · Week 1

Final

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

23·10

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 90°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

TEN -1.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapTitans
  • +0.041EPA / play-0.083
  • 45.3%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback-0.067
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.110
  • 10.1%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +6.05CPOE-0.46
  • 37.0%Third-down rate35.8%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.55
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. TEN are 2-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2NYJ @ TEN24–17NYJ
2021 · W4TEN @ NYJ24–27NYJ
2018 · W13NYJ @ TEN22–26TEN
2015 · W14TEN @ NYJ8–30NYJ
2014 · W15NYJ @ TEN16–11NYJ
2013 · W4NYJ @ TEN13–38TEN
2012 · W15NYJ @ TEN10–14TEN
2009 · W3TEN @ NYJ17–24NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–TEN
NYJQ1 15:00955Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 10:451246Field goal7–3
NYJQ1 5:0334Punt7–3
TENQ1 3:1832Punt7–3
NYJQ1 1:511878Field goal10–3
TENQ2 5:0300Missed field goal10–3
NYJQ2 4:5532Missed field goal10–3
TENQ2 2:4137Punt10–3
NYJQ2 1:10533End of half10–3
TENQ3 15:00520Punt10–3
NYJQ3 13:01690Touchdown17–3
TENQ3 9:4137Punt17–3
NYJQ3 8:38860Field goal20–3
TENQ3 4:33730Punt20–3
NYJQ3 1:0539Punt20–3
TENQ4 14:0432Punt20–3
NYJQ4 12:0139Punt20–3
TENQ4 9:36516Punt20–3
NYJQ4 8:01419Field goal23–3
TENQ4 5:00965Touchdown23–10
NYJQ4 2:42211End of half23–10

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith19/2421500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall221024.61
Braelon Allen10404.00
Geno Smith671.20
Kenyon Sadiq133.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson67790
Adonai Mitchell33600
Omar Cooper Jr.11300
Kenyon Sadiq33210
Breece Hall22160
Isaiah Williams1170
Jeremy Ruckert1140
Braelon Allen0100
Arian Smith0100
Mason Taylor23-20

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward19/3214010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard7355.00
Cam Ward4215.30
Tyjae Spears3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wan'Dale Robinson56380
Carnell Tate46380
Gunnar Helm45280
Tyjae Spears24120
Elic Ayomanor13111
Daniel Bellinger1170
Chimere Dike1170
Tony Pollard12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.65
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.57