Closing spread
TEN -1.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-9.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.126EPA / play-0.141
- 48.4%Success rate44.0%
- +0.338EPA / dropback-0.152
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.096
- 10.9%Explosive rate4.0%
- +12.84CPOE+0.39
- 18.2%Third-down rate33.3%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.08Points / drive0.99
- 0.0%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. TEN are 2-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 19/24 | 215 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 22 | 102 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Braelon Allen | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 6 | 7 | 79 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 3 | 3 | 60 | 0 |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Isaiah Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Arian Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason Taylor | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 19/32 | 140 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cam Ward | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 5 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Carnell Tate | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Gunnar Helm | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 1 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
25.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-11.51
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-9.29