Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play-0.104
- 43.0%Success rate40.4%
- +0.053EPA / dropback-0.056
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.175
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.89CPOE+0.11
- 39.7%Third-down rate38.0%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.85Points / drive1.35
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. TEN are 2-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 18/30 | 176 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 14 | 62 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Garrett Wilson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 4 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 7 | 8 | 52 | 1 |
| Braelon Allen | 2 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Levis | 19/28 | 192 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 17 | 62 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Will Levis | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 4 | 6 | 77 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.19
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.59