2024 · Week 2

Final

Jets

New York

QB Aaron Rodgers

24·17

Titans

Tennessee

QB Will Levis

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapTitans
  • -0.001EPA / play-0.104
  • 43.0%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback-0.056
  • -0.108EPA / rush-0.175
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.89CPOE+0.11
  • 39.7%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 1.85Points / drive1.35
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. TEN are 2-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NYJ @ TEN23–10NYJ
2021 · W4TEN @ NYJ24–27NYJ
2018 · W13NYJ @ TEN22–26TEN
2015 · W14TEN @ NYJ8–30NYJ
2014 · W15NYJ @ TEN16–11NYJ
2013 · W4NYJ @ TEN13–38TEN
2012 · W15NYJ @ TEN10–14TEN
2009 · W3TEN @ NYJ17–24NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–TEN
TENQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:51614Punt0–0
TENQ1 9:081258Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 2:3032Punt0–7
TENQ2 14:511252Turnover0–7
NYJQ2 8:4034Punt0–7
TENQ2 7:0010Turnover0–7
NYJQ2 6:521273Touchdown7–7
TENQ2 1:47736Field goal7–10
NYJQ3 15:00660Touchdown14–10
TENQ3 12:0849Punt14–10
NYJQ3 9:263-7Punt14–10
TENQ3 8:3130Punt14–10
NYJQ3 8:15515Field goal17–10
TENQ3 5:58571Touchdown17–17
NYJQ3 3:22610Punt17–17
TENQ4 14:4738Punt17–17
NYJQ4 12:59521Punt17–17
TENQ4 10:0934Punt17–17
NYJQ4 8:41774Touchdown24–17
TENQ4 4:311356Turnover on downs24–17
NYJQ4 0:1700End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers18/3017620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall14624.40
Braelon Allen7334.71
Garrett Wilson155.00
Aaron Rodgers210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Wilson46570
Breece Hall78521
Braelon Allen24231
Mike Williams11190
Allen Lazard24110
Tyler Conklin12100
Malachi Corley1140
Jeremy Ruckert0300

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Will Levis19/2819211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard17623.60
Will Levis4389.50
Tyjae Spears6203.30
Calvin Ridley11010.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley46771
Tony Pollard56400
Tyler Boyd25260
Chig Okonkwo33160
Josh Whyle22130
Tyjae Spears22110
DeAndre Hopkins1290
Treylon Burks0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.7%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.59