2013 · Week 4

Final

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

13·38

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

TEN -3.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapTitans
  • -0.105EPA / play+0.020
  • 37.6%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.124
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -4.00CPOE+1.14
  • 38.8%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 46.5%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 1.25Points / drive1.79
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. TEN are 2-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NYJ @ TEN23–10NYJ
2024 · W2NYJ @ TEN24–17NYJ
2021 · W4TEN @ NYJ24–27NYJ
2018 · W13NYJ @ TEN22–26TEN
2015 · W14TEN @ NYJ8–30NYJ
2014 · W15NYJ @ TEN16–11NYJ
2012 · W15NYJ @ TEN10–14TEN
2009 · W3TEN @ NYJ17–24NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–TEN
NYJQ1 15:0025Turnover0–0
TENQ1 14:16518Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 11:5737Punt0–7
TENQ1 10:241162Field goal0–10
NYJQ1 4:20958Field goal3–10
TENQ2 14:5557Punt3–10
NYJQ2 13:08620Turnover3–10
TENQ2 9:27626Touchdown3–17
NYJQ2 6:46763Field goal6–17
TENQ2 2:2635Punt6–17
NYJQ2 1:3710Turnover6–17
TENQ2 1:28746Touchdown6–24
NYJQ2 0:0200End of half6–24
TENQ3 15:00618Punt6–24
NYJQ3 12:1731Punt6–24
TENQ3 11:19619Punt6–24
NYJQ3 8:4335Punt6–24
TENQ3 7:1636Punt6–24
NYJQ3 5:47731Punt6–24
TENQ3 3:3649Punt6–24
NYJQ3 2:01839Turnover on downs6–24
TENQ4 13:5837Punt6–30
NYJQ4 11:511-16Opp touchdown6–31
NYJQ4 11:45882Touchdown13–31
TENQ4 8:49380Touchdown13–38
NYJQ4 7:06835Punt13–38
TENQ4 3:19321End of half13–38

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith23/3428912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell14664.70
Geno Smith372.30
Alex Green210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kellen Winslow69730
Jeremy Kerley45650
Bilal Powell35420
Jeff Cumberland11341
Santonio Holmes15250
Clyde Gates33240
Ben Obomanu1180
Alex Green1110
Stephen Hill0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Locker18/2414930
Ryan Fitzpatrick3/810810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jackie Battle11423.80
Chris Johnson15211.40
Jake Locker3175.70
Ryan Fitzpatrick2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington481052
Kendall Wright59560
Damian Williams57530
Justin Hunter11161
Delanie Walker34141
Chris Johnson22100
Collin Mooney1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.62
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.46