Closing spread
TEN -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.105EPA / play+0.020
- 37.6%Success rate42.3%
- -0.105EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.124
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.7%
- -4.00CPOE+1.14
- 38.8%Third-down rate41.0%
- 46.5%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 1.25Points / drive1.79
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. TEN are 2-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 23/34 | 289 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Alex Green | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 6 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 4 | 5 | 65 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 1 | 1 | 34 | 1 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Alex Green | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Stephen Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 18/24 | 149 | 3 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3/8 | 108 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Battle | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 15 | 21 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 4 | 8 | 105 | 2 |
| Kendall Wright | 5 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 4 | 14 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Collin Mooney | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.59
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.62
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.46