Closing spread
TEN -1
Total
40
Model margin
+2.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.101EPA / play-0.093
- 41.7%Success rate38.0%
- -0.139EPA / dropback-0.054
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.166
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- -5.39CPOE-2.87
- 36.9%Third-down rate38.2%
- 47.4%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 1.20Points / drive1.29
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. TEN are 2-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 13/28 | 131 | 1 | 4 |
| Tim Tebow | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 13 | 68 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Joe McKnight | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Cumberland | 4 | 9 | 53 | 1 |
| Braylon Edwards | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Konrad Reuland | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Mardy Gilyard | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Clyde Gates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 13/22 | 149 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 21 | 122 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Jake Locker | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Michael Preston | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
40.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.40