2012 · Week 15

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

10·14

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

TEN -1

Total

40

Model margin

+2.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapTitans
  • -0.101EPA / play-0.093
  • 41.7%Success rate38.0%
  • -0.139EPA / dropback-0.054
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.166
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -5.39CPOE-2.87
  • 36.9%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 47.4%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.29
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. TEN are 2-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NYJ @ TEN23–10NYJ
2024 · W2NYJ @ TEN24–17NYJ
2021 · W4TEN @ NYJ24–27NYJ
2018 · W13NYJ @ TEN22–26TEN
2015 · W14TEN @ NYJ8–30NYJ
2014 · W15NYJ @ TEN16–11NYJ
2013 · W4NYJ @ TEN13–38TEN
2009 · W3TEN @ NYJ17–24NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–TEN
TENQ1 15:00850Missed field goal0–0
NYJQ1 10:261439Field goal3–0
TENQ1 4:17732Punt3–0
NYJQ2 14:52723Punt3–0
TENQ2 9:41295Touchdown3–7
NYJQ2 8:53522Punt3–7
TENQ2 6:0946Punt3–7
NYJQ2 4:0310Turnover3–7
TENQ2 3:5631Punt3–7
NYJQ2 2:3437Punt3–7
TENQ2 1:42414Punt3–7
NYJQ2 0:4938End of half3–7
NYJQ3 15:00416Turnover3–7
TENQ3 13:29612Punt3–7
NYJQ3 9:54830Punt3–7
TENQ3 7:053-3Punt3–7
NYJQ3 5:13435Touchdown10–7
TENQ3 3:19764Touchdown10–14
NYJQ3 0:2030Punt10–14
TENQ4 13:163-4Punt10–14
NYJQ4 11:4538Punt10–14
TENQ4 10:47515Punt10–14
NYJQ4 8:44311Turnover10–14
TENQ4 7:0939Punt10–14
NYJQ4 5:20954Turnover10–14
TENQ4 1:5134Punt10–14
NYJQ4 0:4710Turnover10–14
TENQ4 0:4300End of half10–14

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez13/2813114
Tim Tebow0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene13685.20
Joe McKnight4297.30
Bilal Powell6284.70
Tim Tebow3155.00
Mark Sanchez461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeff Cumberland49531
Braylon Edwards35470
Bilal Powell22150
Jeremy Kerley15110
Konrad Reuland1240
Shonn Greene2310
Mardy Gilyard0200
Clyde Gates0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Locker13/2214900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson211225.81
Jake Locker7436.11

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington46620
Michael Preston23310
Kendall Wright34310
Craig Stevens23160
Kenny Britt1370
Lavelle Hawkins0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

40.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.40