Closing spread
TEN -10.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+6.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play-0.029
- 37.1%Success rate42.6%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.196EPA / rush-0.094
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.3%
- -5.42CPOE+1.50
- 32.2%Third-down rate40.0%
- 49.6%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 1.47Points / drive1.83
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. TEN are 2-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 17/30 | 128 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 21 | 98 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Jordan Leggett | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 2 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 20/35 | 282 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taywan Taylor | 3 | 5 | 104 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 3 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 3 | 3 | 42 | 1 |
| Corey Davis | 3 | 7 | 42 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Darius Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.61%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.4%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.43
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.10
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+6.19