2018 · Week 13

Final

Jets

New York

QB Josh McCown

22·26

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

TEN -10.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+6.2est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapTitans
  • -0.130EPA / play-0.029
  • 37.1%Success rate42.6%
  • -0.087EPA / dropback+0.023
  • -0.196EPA / rush-0.094
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -5.42CPOE+1.50
  • 32.2%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 49.6%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.83
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. TEN are 2-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NYJ @ TEN23–10NYJ
2024 · W2NYJ @ TEN24–17NYJ
2021 · W4TEN @ NYJ24–27NYJ
2015 · W14TEN @ NYJ8–30NYJ
2014 · W15NYJ @ TEN16–11NYJ
2013 · W4NYJ @ TEN13–38TEN
2012 · W15NYJ @ TEN10–14TEN
2009 · W3TEN @ NYJ17–24NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–TEN
TENQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:18835Field goal3–0
TENQ1 9:3536Opp touchdown10–0
TENQ1 7:59822Punt10–0
NYJQ1 3:321374Field goal13–0
TENQ2 11:41730Punt13–0
NYJQ2 8:2138Punt13–0
TENQ2 6:1735Punt13–0
NYJQ2 5:0243Field goal16–0
TENQ2 2:51762Touchdown16–6
NYJQ2 0:5737End of half16–6
NYJQ3 15:0032Punt16–6
TENQ3 13:4734Punt16–6
NYJQ3 13:07539Field goal19–6
TENQ3 10:39675Touchdown19–13
NYJQ3 7:441465Field goal22–13
TENQ3 0:26425Punt22–13
NYJQ4 14:3832Punt22–13
TENQ4 13:37853Field goal22–16
NYJQ4 9:2934Punt22–16
TENQ4 7:22450Field goal22–19
NYJQ4 5:3938Punt22–19
TENQ4 3:5335Punt22–19
NYJQ4 3:13413Punt22–19
TENQ4 1:46866Touchdown22–26
NYJQ4 0:36220Turnover22–26
TENQ4 0:2000End of half22–26

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown17/3012801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell21984.70
Elijah McGuire6193.20
Andre Roberts11818.00
Trenton Cannon4184.50
Josh McCown133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen47480
Chris Herndon26310
Jordan Leggett22180
Andre Roberts11100
Isaiah Crowell4590
Quincy Enunwa2690
Trenton Cannon1170
Elijah McGuire12-40

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota20/3528221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcus Mariota44310.80
Derrick Henry10404.01
Dion Lewis6366.00
Corey Davis11212.00
Blaine Gabbert1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Taywan Taylor351040
Tajae Sharpe36510
Anthony Firkser33421
Corey Davis37421
Jonnu Smith23290
Cameron Batson1270
Derrick Henry2250
MyCole Pruitt1140
Darius Jennings0100
Dion Lewis23-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.61%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.4%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.10
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+6.19