Closing spread
TEN -5.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-2.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.072
- 44.7%Success rate42.1%
- +0.092EPA / dropback-0.066
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.084
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.7%
- +2.33CPOE-7.25
- 43.8%Third-down rate37.8%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 2.15Points / drive1.70
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. NYJ are 11-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 30/49 | 298 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 33 | 157 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy McNichols | 8 | 12 | 74 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 5 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 6 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Tommy Hudson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Geoff Swaim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 21/34 | 297 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 4 | 7 | 111 | 1 |
| Keelan Cole | 3 | 4 | 92 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 7 | 9 | 61 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Wesco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.6%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.51
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.81