2021 · Week 4

Final / OT

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

24·27

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 78°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TEN -5.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-2.8est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJets
  • +0.025EPA / play-0.072
  • 44.7%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.092EPA / dropback-0.066
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.084
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +2.33CPOE-7.25
  • 43.8%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 2.15Points / drive1.70
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999

NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. NYJ are 11-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NYJ @ TEN23–10NYJ
2024 · W2NYJ @ TEN24–17NYJ
2018 · W13NYJ @ TEN22–26TEN
2015 · W14TEN @ NYJ8–30NYJ
2014 · W15NYJ @ TEN16–11NYJ
2013 · W4NYJ @ TEN13–38TEN
2012 · W15NYJ @ TEN10–14TEN
2009 · W3TEN @ NYJ17–24NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:161232Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 7:06510Punt3–0
TENQ1 4:031073Field goal6–0
NYJQ2 12:5322Turnover6–0
TENQ2 12:1540Field goal9–0
NYJQ2 10:291175Touchdown9–7
TENQ2 4:4938Punt9–7
NYJQ2 3:223-4Punt9–7
TENQ2 1:49838End of half9–7
TENQ3 15:00716Punt9–7
NYJQ3 11:0039Punt9–7
TENQ3 8:54943Punt9–7
NYJQ3 3:36778Field goal9–10
TENQ3 0:19675Touchdown17–10
NYJQ4 13:14534Touchdown17–17
TENQ4 11:3034Punt17–23
NYJQ4 9:16153Touchdown17–24
TENQ4 9:0630Punt17–24
NYJQ4 8:4736Punt17–24
TENQ4 6:56945Turnover on downs17–24
NYJQ4 3:41519Punt17–24
TENQ4 2:091252Touchdown24–24
NYJQ4 0:1600End of half24–24
NYJOT1271Field goal24–27
TENOT1344Missed field goal24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill30/4929810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry331574.81
Jeremy McNichols11111.00
Ryan Tannehill393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy McNichols812740
Chester Rogers56630
Josh Reynolds69590
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine38290
Anthony Firkser35230
Derrick Henry22200
MyCole Pruitt11140
Tommy Hudson11140
Cameron Batson1421
Geoff Swaim0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson21/3429721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Carter13382.91
Braxton Berrios2157.50
Tevin Coleman4143.50
Ty Johnson310.30
Zach Wilson3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis471111
Keelan Cole34920
Jamison Crowder79611
Tevin Coleman22170
Ty Johnson22120
Ryan Griffin1480
Tyler Kroft0100
Braxton Berrios1100
Trevon Wesco0100
Michael Carter13-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.6%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.51
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.81