Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. PIT are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 14:02 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:38 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 9:16 | 7 | 19 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 7:00 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PIT | Q1 3:23 | 6 | 43 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 14:55 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 7–3 |
| PIT | Q2 11:43 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LV | Q2 8:48 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–3 |
| PIT | Q2 7:45 | 6 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 5:26 | 4 | 6 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q2 3:35 | 3 | 21 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| LV | Q2 2:06 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 7–17 |
| PIT | Q2 0:35 | 6 | 29 | Missed field goal | 7–17 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| LV | Q3 14:20 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–17 |
| PIT | Q3 13:28 | 2 | 26 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| LV | Q3 12:44 | 1 | -11 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| PIT | Q3 12:31 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LV | Q3 10:21 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–17 |
| PIT | Q3 7:41 | 3 | 9 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| LV | Q3 6:18 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–24 |
| PIT | Q3 4:12 | 8 | 68 | Field goal | 7–27 |
| LV | Q4 14:16 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 7–27 |
| PIT | Q4 11:52 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 7–27 |
| LV | Q4 9:26 | 6 | 22 | Turnover | 7–27 |
| PIT | Q4 7:06 | 9 | 63 | End of half | 7–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 19/28 | 266 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 27 | 106 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.78
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.