Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.012
- 43.4%Success rate45.1%
- +0.057EPA / dropback+0.016
- -0.071EPA / rush+0.006
- 9.9%Explosive rate7.9%
- -2.03CPOE+1.33
- 39.7%Third-down rate43.5%
- 59.7%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 2.10Points / drive1.65
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. PIT are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 16/30 | 174 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 4 | 7 | 42 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 2 | 9 | 15 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 26/39 | 244 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 7 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 5 | 5 | 57 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 6 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.67
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.38