2022 · Week 16

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

10·13

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 9°F · wind 21mph

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+4.4est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapSteelers
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.012
  • 43.4%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.057EPA / dropback+0.016
  • -0.071EPA / rush+0.006
  • 9.9%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -2.03CPOE+1.33
  • 39.7%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 59.7%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.65
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 8–7 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. PIT are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6PIT @ LV32–13PIT
2023 · W3PIT @ LV23–18PIT
2021 · W2LV @ PIT26–17RAIDERS
2018 · W14PIT @ OAK21–24RAIDERS
2015 · W9OAK @ PIT35–38PIT
2013 · W8PIT @ OAK18–21RAIDERS
2012 · W3PIT @ OAK31–34RAIDERS
2010 · W11OAK @ PIT3–35PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–PIT
LVQ1 15:001472Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 6:38618Punt7–0
LVQ1 3:40414Punt7–0
PITQ1 1:24850Missed field goal7–0
LVQ2 11:48412Punt7–0
PITQ2 9:391462Field goal7–3
LVQ2 1:49853Field goal10–3
PITQ2 0:0500End of half10–3
PITQ3 15:00749Turnover10–3
LVQ3 11:4810Turnover10–3
PITQ3 11:39622Missed field goal10–3
LVQ3 7:17520Turnover10–3
PITQ3 4:4030Punt10–3
LVQ3 4:13712Punt10–3
PITQ4 14:54943Field goal10–6
LVQ4 9:47513Punt10–6
PITQ4 5:5639Punt10–6
LVQ4 4:3235Punt10–6
PITQ4 2:551076Touchdown10–13
LVQ4 0:4620Turnover10–13
PITQ4 0:29221End of half10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr16/3017413

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs15442.90
Derek Carr3144.70
Brandon Bolden100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Waller45580
Hunter Renfrow47421
Ameer Abdullah22270
Foster Moreau23190
Davante Adams29150
Mack Hollins1270
Josh Jacobs1160
Keelan Cole0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett26/3924411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris16533.30
Jaylen Warren6233.80
Kenny Pickett393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pat Freiermuth78660
Diontae Johnson57640
George Pickens55571
Najee Harris69420
Steven Sims1170
Jaylen Warren1270
Zach Gentry1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.7%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.38