Closing spread
LV -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
LV perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.064EPA / play-0.086
- 42.3%Success rate41.5%
- -0.060EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.151
- 8.8%Explosive rate5.9%
- -0.21CPOE-3.79
- 37.3%Third-down rate35.2%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.54Points / drive1.66
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. LV are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 16/28 | 235 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 19 | 65 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 4 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 2 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 28/44 | 324 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 17 | 62 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 13 | 20 | 172 | 2 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 7 | 12 | 85 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.39
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.23