2023 · Week 3

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

23·18

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

LV perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRaiders
  • -0.064EPA / play-0.086
  • 42.3%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback-0.045
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.151
  • 8.8%Explosive rate5.9%
  • -0.21CPOE-3.79
  • 37.3%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.66
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 8–7 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. LV are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6PIT @ LV32–13PIT
2022 · W16LV @ PIT10–13PIT
2021 · W2LV @ PIT26–17RAIDERS
2018 · W14PIT @ OAK21–24RAIDERS
2015 · W9OAK @ PIT35–38PIT
2013 · W8PIT @ OAK18–21RAIDERS
2012 · W3PIT @ OAK31–34RAIDERS
2010 · W11OAK @ PIT3–35PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–LV
PITQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
LVQ1 12:5637Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:2734Punt0–0
LVQ1 10:27779Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 7:04375Touchdown7–7
LVQ1 6:1235Punt7–7
PITQ1 4:29614Punt7–7
LVQ1 0:49843Turnover7–7
PITQ2 12:24729Field goal10–7
LVQ2 8:33312Punt10–7
PITQ2 7:041243Field goal13–7
LVQ2 1:56515Punt13–7
PITQ2 0:3816End of half13–7
LVQ3 15:0037Punt13–7
PITQ3 13:57852Field goal16–7
LVQ3 9:28527Turnover16–7
PITQ3 7:15681Touchdown23–7
LVQ3 3:561168Turnover on downs23–7
PITQ4 13:1338Punt23–7
LVQ4 11:321466Touchdown23–15
PITQ4 5:4132Punt23–15
LVQ4 4:35833Field goal23–18
PITQ4 2:22611Punt23–18
LVQ4 0:1210Turnover23–18
PITQ4 0:0500End of half23–18

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett16/2823520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris19653.40
Jaylen Warren8293.60
Kenny Pickett3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens46750
Calvin Austin III26721
Pat Freiermuth34411
Allen Robinson44240
Jaylen Warren34230
Najee Harris0100

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo28/4432423

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs17623.60
Jimmy Garoppolo273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams13201722
Jakobi Meyers712850
Josh Jacobs35180
Hunter Renfrow22170
DeAndre Carter11160
Ameer Abdullah23160
Michael Mayer0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.39
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.23