2024 · Week 6

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Justin Fields

32·13

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Aidan O'Connell

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRaiders
  • -0.027EPA / play-0.131
  • 40.7%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback-0.058
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.283
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +3.65CPOE-1.46
  • 39.7%Third-down rate34.2%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.51
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 8–7 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. LV are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W3PIT @ LV23–18PIT
2022 · W16LV @ PIT10–13PIT
2021 · W2LV @ PIT26–17RAIDERS
2018 · W14PIT @ OAK21–24RAIDERS
2015 · W9OAK @ PIT35–38PIT
2013 · W8PIT @ OAK18–21RAIDERS
2012 · W3PIT @ OAK31–34RAIDERS
2010 · W11OAK @ PIT3–35PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–LV
PITQ1 15:00837Field goal3–0
LVQ1 10:191070Touchdown3–7
PITQ1 4:2433Punt3–7
LVQ1 2:4836Punt3–7
PITQ1 1:121053Field goal6–7
LVQ2 12:1239Punt6–7
PITQ2 10:231041Punt6–7
LVQ2 4:37414Turnover6–7
PITQ2 2:32718Touchdown12–7
LVQ2 0:34518Turnover on downs12–7
LVQ3 15:00714Punt12–7
PITQ3 10:5834Field goal15–7
LVQ3 9:2034Punt15–7
PITQ3 7:40765Touchdown22–7
LVQ3 4:211074Turnover22–7
PITQ4 14:21838Punt22–7
LVQ4 9:163-9Turnover28–7
PITQ4 8:2117Touchdown29–7
LVQ4 8:161070Touchdown29–13
PITQ4 4:54518Field goal32–13
LVQ4 3:5545Turnover on downs32–13
PITQ4 2:44211End of half32–13

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields14/2414500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris141067.61
Justin Fields11595.42
Jonathan Ward3134.30
Jaylen Warren671.20
Aaron Shampklin1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens38530
Calvin Austin III25360
Najee Harris22160
Pat Freiermuth23160
Jaylen Warren33110
Darnell Washington1190

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aidan O'Connell27/4022711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison14332.41
Ameer Abdullah4246.00
Dylan Laube100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brock Bowers910710
DJ Turner24370
Alexander Mattison55320
Alex Bachman33310
Harrison Bryant35240
Kristian Wilkerson23181
Ameer Abdullah35140
Tre Tucker0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

6.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.1%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.77
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.51