Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play-0.131
- 40.7%Success rate41.0%
- +0.051EPA / dropback-0.058
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.283
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.2%
- +3.65CPOE-1.46
- 39.7%Third-down rate34.2%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.86Points / drive1.51
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. LV are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 14/24 | 145 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 14 | 106 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Justin Fields | 11 | 59 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Jonathan Ward | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Shampklin | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 3 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 2 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 27/40 | 227 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Dylan Laube | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 9 | 10 | 71 | 0 |
| DJ Turner | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 5 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Alex Bachman | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Kristian Wilkerson | 2 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
6.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.77
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.51