Closing spread
PIT -10.5
Total
51
Model margin
+1.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Steelers
- OutJames ConnerRBAnkle· DNP
- OutMarcus GilbertTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableAnthony ChickilloLBAnkle· Full
- QuestionableMorgan BurnettSBack· Full
Raiders
- QuestionableDaryl WorleyCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableDoug MartinRBKnee· Full
- QuestionableKelechi OsemeleGToe· DNP
- QuestionableKyle WilberLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableMaurice HurstDTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableSeth RobertsWRConcussion· Full
- LimitedArden KeyDEKnee
- LimitedGabe JacksonGKnee
- LimitedRodney HudsonCAnkle
Win probability
- Raiders
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. OAK are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 10:44 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 7:40 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 3:48 | 11 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 12:18 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q2 8:04 | 7 | 24 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 4:29 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–10 |
| PIT | Q2 2:57 | 9 | 53 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| LV | Q2 0:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–10 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 14–10 |
| LV | Q3 12:34 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 14–10 |
| PIT | Q3 9:18 | 5 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 14–10 |
| LV | Q3 6:44 | 9 | 56 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| PIT | Q3 2:24 | 5 | 12 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| LV | Q3 0:12 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–10 |
| PIT | Q4 14:40 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–10 |
| LV | Q4 13:10 | 14 | 78 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| PIT | Q4 5:20 | 7 | 70 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| LV | Q4 2:55 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| PIT | Q4 0:21 | 1 | 48 | Missed field goal | 21–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 25/29 | 282 | 2 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 4/9 | 24 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Samuels | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 8 | 12 | 130 | 2 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 7 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| James Washington | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.