Closing spread
PIT -10.5
Total
51
Model margin
+1.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. OAK are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 25/29 | 282 | 2 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 4/9 | 24 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Samuels | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 8 | 12 | 130 | 2 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 7 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| James Washington | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.