Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. OAK are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 36/49 | 384 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Redman | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Baron Batch | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 8 | 11 | 123 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 11 | 87 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 8 | 10 | 60 | 2 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Rainey | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Baron Batch | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.57
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.