2012 · Week 3

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

31·34

Raiders

Oakland

QB Carson Palmer

O.co Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

OAK perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

PIT lead 8–7 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. OAK are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6PIT @ LV32–13PIT
2023 · W3PIT @ LV23–18PIT
2022 · W16LV @ PIT10–13PIT
2021 · W2LV @ PIT26–17RAIDERS
2018 · W14PIT @ OAK21–24RAIDERS
2015 · W9OAK @ PIT35–38PIT
2013 · W8PIT @ OAK18–21RAIDERS
2010 · W11OAK @ PIT3–35PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–OAK
LVQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
PITQ1 14:39736Touchdown7–0
LVQ1 11:33380Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 10:331281Touchdown14–7
LVQ1 3:493-10Punt14–7
PITQ1 2:20414Punt14–7
LVQ1 0:5734Punt14–7
PITQ2 14:36618Punt14–7
LVQ2 10:1934Punt14–7
PITQ2 8:32722Turnover14–7
LVQ2 4:20627Touchdown14–14
PITQ2 1:54664Field goal17–14
PITQ3 15:00985Touchdown24–14
LVQ3 11:401048Touchdown24–21
PITQ3 6:35953Touchdown31–21
LVQ3 1:311190Touchdown31–28
PITQ4 12:13334Turnover31–28
LVQ4 10:45929Field goal31–31
PITQ4 6:30826Punt31–31
LVQ4 1:43849Field goal31–34

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger36/4938440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaac Redman9273.00
Baron Batch4123.00
Ben Roethlisberger188.00
Chris Rainey273.50
Mike Wallace111.00
Jonathan Dwyer3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace8111231
Antonio Brown711871
Heath Miller810602
Emmanuel Sanders34330
Isaac Redman33240
Chris Rainey22230
Baron Batch22200
Jerricho Cotchery1190
Will Johnson1140
Jonathan Dwyer1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.57

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.