Closing spread
PIT -6
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. PIT are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/44 | 334 | 2 | 1 |
| Landry Jones | 4/6 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 27 | 170 | 6.3 | 2 |
| Antonio Brown | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 17 | 23 | 284 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 3 | 7 | 31 | 1 |
| Jesse James | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.61
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.