2015 · Week 9

Final

Raiders

Oakland

QB Derek Carr

35·38

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -6

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

PIT lead 8–7 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. PIT are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6PIT @ LV32–13PIT
2023 · W3PIT @ LV23–18PIT
2022 · W16LV @ PIT10–13PIT
2021 · W2LV @ PIT26–17RAIDERS
2018 · W14PIT @ OAK21–24RAIDERS
2013 · W8PIT @ OAK18–21RAIDERS
2012 · W3PIT @ OAK31–34RAIDERS
2010 · W11OAK @ PIT3–35PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultOAK–PIT
PITQ1 15:00745Turnover on downs0–0
LVQ1 12:53366Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 12:10429Punt7–0
LVQ1 10:0036Punt7–0
PITQ1 8:55843Field goal7–3
LVQ1 4:40823Punt7–3
PITQ1 1:36683Touchdown7–11
LVQ2 13:57637Punt7–11
PITQ2 10:4632Punt7–11
LVQ2 9:52740Touchdown14–11
PITQ2 6:05978Touchdown14–18
LVQ2 1:563-2Punt14–18
PITQ2 0:59528Field goal14–21
LVQ2 0:2900End of half14–21
LVQ3 15:003-1Punt14–21
PITQ3 13:0633Punt14–21
LVQ3 11:31990Touchdown21–21
PITQ3 7:0242Turnover21–21
LVQ3 5:3927Turnover21–21
PITQ3 4:56752Missed field goal21–21
LVQ3 2:54426Punt21–21
PITQ3 1:13991Touchdown21–28
LVQ4 12:1300Touchdown21–28
PITQ4 12:0526Touchdown21–35
LVQ4 11:24460Touchdown28–35
PITQ4 9:32526Punt28–35
LVQ4 7:1234Punt28–35
LVQ4 6:05716Turnover28–35
PITQ4 4:21620Punt28–35
LVQ4 2:15769Touchdown35–35
PITQ4 1:15689Field goal35–38
LVQ4 0:0200Turnover35–38

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger24/4433421
Landry Jones4/67900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams271706.32
Antonio Brown22211.00
Jordan Todman133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown17232840
DeAngelo Williams24550
Heath Miller36320
Martavis Bryant37311
Jesse James22131
Darrius Heyward-Bey0200
Jordan Todman0200
Markus Wheaton14-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.4%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.61

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.