Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play-0.051
- 45.2%Success rate40.2%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.037
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.1%
- +1.92CPOE-2.66
- 36.8%Third-down rate39.0%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 1.87Points / drive1.65
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. PIT are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 28/37 | 382 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 13 | 32 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Ruggs III | 5 | 7 | 113 | 1 |
| Darren Waller | 5 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 5 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 27/40 | 295 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Benny Snell | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 9 | 12 | 105 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 3 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 5 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 6 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| James Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.84