2021 · Week 2

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

26·17

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PIT -5.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapSteelers
  • -0.001EPA / play-0.051
  • 45.2%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.037
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.078
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +1.92CPOE-2.66
  • 36.8%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.65
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 8–7 since 1999

PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. PIT are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6PIT @ LV32–13PIT
2023 · W3PIT @ LV23–18PIT
2022 · W16LV @ PIT10–13PIT
2018 · W14PIT @ OAK21–24RAIDERS
2015 · W9OAK @ PIT35–38PIT
2013 · W8PIT @ OAK18–21RAIDERS
2012 · W3PIT @ OAK31–34RAIDERS
2010 · W11OAK @ PIT3–35PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–PIT
PITQ1 15:00614Punt0–0
LVQ1 11:27619Punt0–0
PITQ1 8:15514Turnover0–0
LVQ1 5:44420Field goal3–0
PITQ1 3:101050Turnover on downs3–0
LVQ2 13:32727Field goal6–0
PITQ2 9:34775Touchdown6–7
LVQ2 6:251473Field goal9–7
PITQ2 0:0200End of half9–7
LVQ3 15:00622Punt9–7
PITQ3 12:15620Punt9–7
LVQ3 9:11782Touchdown16–7
PITQ3 5:02628Punt16–7
LVQ3 1:43747Punt16–7
PITQ4 12:56580Touchdown16–14
LVQ4 11:15575Touchdown23–14
PITQ4 9:3539Punt23–14
LVQ4 8:23414Punt23–14
PITQ4 5:51730Field goal23–17
LVQ4 3:42646Field goal26–17
PITQ4 0:20111End of half26–17

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr28/3738220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber13322.50
Derek Carr492.30
Kenyan Drake791.30
Henry Ruggs III122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Henry Ruggs III571131
Darren Waller57650
Hunter Renfrow57570
Kenyan Drake56460
Bryan Edwards33400
Foster Moreau23341
Willie Snead11140
Derek Carrier22130

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger27/4029511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris10383.80
JuJu Smith-Schuster133.01
Benny Snell210.50
Chase Claypool1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson9121050
Chase Claypool39700
Najee Harris55431
JuJu Smith-Schuster67410
Pat Freiermuth44360
Eric Ebron0200
James Washington0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

3.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.84