Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Total
40
Model margin
+2.3est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Steelers
- OutMarkus WheatonWRFinger· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutRichard GordonTEToe· Full
- ProbableBrett KeiselDERibs· Full
- ProbableCameron HeywardDEIllness· Full
- ProbableHeath MillerTENot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableJarvis JonesLBConcussion· Full
- ProbableJerricho CotcheryWRAbdomen· Full
- ProbableKelvin BeachumTRibs· Full
- ProbableLaMarr WoodleyLBKnee· Full
- ProbableLawrence TimmonsLBHand· Full
- ProbableMarcus GilbertTQuadricep· Full
- ProbableRamon FosterGThumb· Full
Raiders
- OutTyvon BranchSAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulAndre GurodeGQuadricep· DNP
- DoubtfulMenelik WatsonTCalf· DNP
- DoubtfulTony PashosTHip· DNP
- QuestionableKaluka MaiavaLBHamstring· Limited
- ProbableStefen WisniewskiCKnee· Full
- ProbableTracy PorterCBShoulder· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–7 since 1999
PIT have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.2 points. OAK are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 93 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 14:41 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 13:32 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 12:13 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 10:04 | 5 | 26 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| PIT | Q1 7:28 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LV | Q1 4:40 | 6 | 22 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| PIT | Q1 1:58 | 4 | 19 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| LV | Q2 14:14 | 8 | 24 | Punt | 3–14 |
| PIT | Q2 10:02 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LV | Q2 8:00 | 11 | 72 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| PIT | Q2 1:55 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LV | Q2 1:08 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| PIT | Q2 1:00 | 5 | 41 | Missed field goal | 3–21 |
| LV | Q2 0:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–21 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 15 | 51 | Missed field goal | 3–21 |
| LV | Q3 5:49 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–21 |
| PIT | Q3 4:12 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–21 |
| LV | Q3 2:51 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 3–21 |
| PIT | Q4 14:24 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| LV | Q4 13:52 | 2 | -4 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| PIT | Q4 13:06 | 3 | 11 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| LV | Q4 12:11 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–21 |
| PIT | Q4 10:34 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 10–21 |
| LV | Q4 9:09 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–21 |
| PIT | Q4 7:34 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 10–21 |
| LV | Q4 6:46 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–21 |
| PIT | Q4 4:22 | 13 | 81 | Touchdown | 18–21 |
| LV | Q4 1:24 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 18–21 |
| PIT | Q4 0:18 | 1 | 33 | End of half | 18–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 29/45 | 275 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 13 | 24 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 7 | 11 | 88 | 1 |
| Antonio Brown | 9 | 13 | 82 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 5 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.26
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.