Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
52.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.070EPA / play+0.079
- 46.1%Success rate45.9%
- +0.148EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.044
- 10.5%Explosive rate9.7%
- 46.8%Third-down rate46.9%
- 68.2%Red-zone TD rate62.7%
- 1.98Points / drive1.96
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.012EPA / play allowed-0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. MIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:08 | 2 | 28 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 10:31 | 6 | 33 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 7:16 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 5:57 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 3:49 | 9 | 73 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q2 14:30 | 3 | 58 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q2 13:17 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q2 12:00 | 14 | 58 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q2 3:27 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| MIN | Q2 2:22 | 10 | 38 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 39 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| MIN | Q3 12:42 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| SEA | Q3 9:24 | 7 | 41 | Missed field goal | 7–20 |
| MIN | Q3 6:11 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 7–20 |
| SEA | Q3 3:10 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–20 |
| MIN | Q3 2:11 | 6 | 58 | Touchdown | 7–27 |
| SEA | Q4 14:53 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 7–27 |
| MIN | Q4 13:05 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 7–27 |
| SEA | Q4 9:18 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 7–27 |
| MIN | Q4 7:24 | 8 | 52 | Turnover on downs | 7–27 |
| SEA | Q4 2:20 | 5 | 33 | Opp touchdown | 7–34 |
| SEA | Q4 1:34 | 3 | 2 | End of half | 7–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/34 | 218 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 21/33 | 274 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 25 | 103 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Onterrio Smith | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.55