2021 · Week 3

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

17·30

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

SEA -2

Total

53.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapVikings
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.018
  • 43.8%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.102
  • +0.026EPA / rush-0.111
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +4.08CPOE+0.82
  • 37.3%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 69.7%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.13
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. MIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13MIN @ SEA0–26SEA
2024 · W16MIN @ SEA27–24MIN
2020 · W5MIN @ SEA26–27SEA
2019 · W13MIN @ SEA30–37SEA
2018 · W14MIN @ SEA7–21SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ MIN10–9SEA
2015 · W13SEA @ MIN38–7SEA
2013 · W11MIN @ SEA20–41SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–MIN
SEAQ1 15:00975Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 10:26770Touchdown7–7
SEAQ1 6:371050Field goal10–7
MINQ1 0:2733Punt10–7
SEAQ2 14:45676Touchdown17–7
MINQ2 11:121190Touchdown17–14
SEAQ2 5:28553Missed field goal17–14
MINQ2 3:141266Touchdown17–21
SEAQ2 0:16354End of half17–21
MINQ3 15:001550Field goal17–24
SEAQ3 6:3457Punt17–24
MINQ3 3:481070Field goal17–27
SEAQ4 13:47518Punt17–27
MINQ4 11:391188Field goal17–30
SEAQ4 4:31617Turnover on downs17–30
MINQ4 2:28616Punt17–30
SEAQ4 0:23439End of half17–30

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson23/3229810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson12806.71
Freddie Swain11111.00
Alex Collins284.00
Russell Wilson372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf691071
Gerald Everett55540
Travis Homer33480
Will Dissly11390
Tyler Lockett44310
Freddie Swain12100
Penny Hart1270
Chris Carson2220

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins30/3832330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison261124.30
Ameer Abdullah5244.80
Kirk Cousins122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson9111181
Tyler Conklin78701
Alexander Mattison68590
Adam Thielen69501
K.J. Osborn22260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.9%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.68