Closing spread
SEA -2
Total
53.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.018
- 43.8%Success rate41.6%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.102
- +0.026EPA / rush-0.111
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.3%
- +4.08CPOE+0.82
- 37.3%Third-down rate36.6%
- 69.7%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
- 2.12Points / drive2.13
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. MIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 23/32 | 298 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 12 | 80 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 9 | 107 | 1 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Penny Hart | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 30/38 | 323 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 26 | 112 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 9 | 11 | 118 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 7 | 8 | 70 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 6 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 6 | 9 | 50 | 1 |
| K.J. Osborn | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.68