2018 · Week 14

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

7·21

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.075EPA / play+0.093
  • 43.2%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.011EPA / dropback+0.208
  • -0.203EPA / rush-0.027
  • 8.0%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +2.40CPOE+7.30
  • 36.2%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 67.3%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 1.57Points / drive2.23
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13MIN @ SEA0–26SEA
2024 · W16MIN @ SEA27–24MIN
2021 · W3SEA @ MIN17–30MIN
2020 · W5MIN @ SEA26–27SEA
2019 · W13MIN @ SEA30–37SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ MIN10–9SEA
2015 · W13SEA @ MIN38–7SEA
2013 · W11MIN @ SEA20–41SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–SEA
MINQ1 15:00522Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:2439Punt0–0
MINQ1 9:19710Punt0–0
SEAQ1 5:501270Field goal0–3
MINQ2 14:1149Punt0–3
SEAQ2 11:26742Punt0–3
MINQ2 8:02421Punt0–3
SEAQ2 5:491354Turnover0–3
MINQ2 0:0600End of half0–3
SEAQ3 15:00723Punt0–3
MINQ3 11:06622Punt0–3
SEAQ3 7:4433Punt0–3
MINQ3 6:12827Turnover on downs0–3
SEAQ3 2:01812Field goal0–6
MINQ4 13:22874Turnover on downs0–6
SEAQ4 9:0630Punt0–6
MINQ4 8:08722Missed field goal0–6
SEAQ4 5:38763Touchdown0–14
MINQ4 2:5320Opp touchdown0–21
MINQ4 2:35670Touchdown7–21
SEAQ4 1:1000End of half7–21

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins20/3320810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook13554.20
Adam Thielen188.00
Kirk Cousins351.70
Stefon Diggs155.00
Latavius Murray341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs46760
Adam Thielen57700
Dalvin Cook57281
Laquon Treadwell33160
Tyler Conklin12110
Kyle Rudolph2570
Aldrick Robinson0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson10/207201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson22904.11
Russell Wilson7618.70
Rashaad Penny8445.50
Mike Davis3227.30
Tyler Lockett2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett56420
Nick Vannett11120
Mike Davis1150
Ed Dickson1140
Jaron Brown1100
David Moore0500

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.17