Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play+0.093
- 43.2%Success rate44.2%
- -0.011EPA / dropback+0.208
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.027
- 8.0%Explosive rate11.2%
- +2.40CPOE+7.30
- 36.2%Third-down rate38.7%
- 67.3%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 1.57Points / drive2.23
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 20/33 | 208 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 6 | 76 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 5 | 7 | 28 | 1 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 10/20 | 72 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 22 | 90 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 61 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 8 | 44 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Moore | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.17