2024 · Week 16

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Darnold

27·24

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

43

Model margin

+1.0est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.038EPA / play-0.013
  • 46.3%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.135EPA / dropback+0.044
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.126
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +4.00CPOE+4.61
  • 39.7%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.82
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13MIN @ SEA0–26SEA
2021 · W3SEA @ MIN17–30MIN
2020 · W5MIN @ SEA26–27SEA
2019 · W13MIN @ SEA30–37SEA
2018 · W14MIN @ SEA7–21SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ MIN10–9SEA
2015 · W13SEA @ MIN38–7SEA
2013 · W11MIN @ SEA20–41SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–SEA
MINQ1 15:001270Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 8:0638Punt7–0
MINQ1 6:09731Punt7–0
SEAQ1 2:38787Touchdown7–7
MINQ2 13:353-6Punt7–7
SEAQ2 12:0139Punt7–7
MINQ2 10:29962Touchdown14–7
SEAQ2 5:5010Turnover14–7
MINQ2 5:423-3Field goal17–7
SEAQ2 3:3332Punt17–7
MINQ2 1:5737Punt17–7
SEAQ2 1:25688Touchdown17–14
MINQ2 0:2000End of half17–14
SEAQ3 15:00925Field goal17–17
MINQ3 10:37940Field goal20–17
SEAQ3 6:2533Punt20–17
MINQ3 4:45638Punt20–17
SEAQ3 1:581128Punt20–17
MINQ4 12:2137Punt20–17
SEAQ4 10:371283Touchdown20–24
MINQ4 4:21560Touchdown27–24
SEAQ4 3:51528Missed field goal27–24
MINQ4 1:553-5Punt27–24
SEAQ4 0:5510Turnover27–24
MINQ4 0:4900End of half27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold22/3524630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones18673.70
Sam Darnold5112.20
Cam Akers133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson10131442
Jordan Addison58351
T.J. Hockenson25270
Aaron Jones35260
Jalen Nailor1250
Josh Oliver0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith31/4331432

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III8313.90
Kenny McIntosh3144.70
Geno Smith188.00
Jaxon Smith-Njigba155.00
Zach Charbonnet1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba812951
DK Metcalf37571
Noah Fant36500
Kenneth Walker III88280
Tyler Lockett22190
Pharaoh Brown11170
Kenny McIntosh11150
Zach Charbonnet22140
AJ Barner22131
Jake Bobo1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.98