Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.0est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play-0.013
- 46.3%Success rate44.4%
- +0.135EPA / dropback+0.044
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.126
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- +4.00CPOE+4.61
- 39.7%Third-down rate37.5%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.09Points / drive1.82
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 22/35 | 246 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 18 | 67 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 10 | 13 | 144 | 2 |
| Jordan Addison | 5 | 8 | 35 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 31/43 | 314 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Kenny McIntosh | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 8 | 12 | 95 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 7 | 57 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 8 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Kenny McIntosh | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.80
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.98