2015 · Week 13

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

38·7

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

TCF Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 37°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SEA -2.5

Total

43

Model margin

+0.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapVikings
  • +0.105EPA / play+0.022
  • 47.1%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.255EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.013
  • 10.9%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +7.64CPOE+2.87
  • 47.8%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 2.18Points / drive1.94
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. MIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13MIN @ SEA0–26SEA
2024 · W16MIN @ SEA27–24MIN
2021 · W3SEA @ MIN17–30MIN
2020 · W5MIN @ SEA26–27SEA
2019 · W13MIN @ SEA30–37SEA
2018 · W14MIN @ SEA7–21SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ MIN10–9SEA
2013 · W11MIN @ SEA20–41SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–MIN
SEAQ1 15:00419Turnover0–0
MINQ1 13:2734Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:151391Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 3:366-1Punt7–0
SEAQ1 0:27427Punt7–0
MINQ2 13:07836Punt7–0
SEAQ2 8:191378Touchdown14–0
MINQ2 2:04519Turnover20–0
SEAQ2 1:08120Touchdown21–0
MINQ2 1:04510Punt21–0
MINQ3 15:0046Punt21–0
SEAQ3 12:57742Touchdown28–0
MINQ3 9:121032Punt28–0
SEAQ3 3:53685Touchdown35–6
MINQ3 1:0100Touchdown35–7
SEAQ3 0:481475Field goal38–7
MINQ4 8:00828Turnover on downs38–7
SEAQ4 4:323-2Punt38–7
MINQ4 2:543-9Punt38–7
SEAQ4 1:1600End of half38–7

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson21/2727430
Tarvaris Jackson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Rawls191015.31
Russell Wilson9515.71
DuJuan Harris372.30
Tyler Lockett177.00
Fred Jackson155.00
Tarvaris Jackson2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin57942
Tyler Lockett77900
Luke Willson23360
Thomas Rawls33220
Fred Jackson22131
Cooper Helfet14130
B.J. Daniels1160
Jermaine Kearse0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater17/2811801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson8182.30
Jerick McKinnon4184.50
Teddy Bridgewater122.00
Matt Asiata2-1-0.50
Stefon Diggs1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace23430
Jarius Wright22240
Stefon Diggs26220
Kyle Rudolph34130
Adrian Peterson4460
Jerick McKinnon3660
MyCole Pruitt1140
Matt Asiata0100
Rhett Ellison0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.9%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.32