2019 · Week 13

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

30·37

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 51°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

SEA -2.5

Total

48

Model margin

-0.5est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.056EPA / play+0.018
  • 42.1%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback+0.119
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.134
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +3.53CPOE+7.05
  • 44.0%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.86
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13MIN @ SEA0–26SEA
2024 · W16MIN @ SEA27–24MIN
2021 · W3SEA @ MIN17–30MIN
2020 · W5MIN @ SEA26–27SEA
2018 · W14MIN @ SEA7–21SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ MIN10–9SEA
2015 · W13SEA @ MIN38–7SEA
2013 · W11MIN @ SEA20–41SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00521Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:43683Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 8:121475Touchdown7–7
MINQ1 0:11728Punt7–7
SEAQ2 11:3339Punt7–7
MINQ2 9:51623Punt7–7
SEAQ2 6:38315Opp touchdown14–7
SEAQ2 5:09962Field goal14–10
MINQ2 0:58746Field goal17–10
MINQ3 15:0034Punt17–10
SEAQ3 13:22956Touchdown17–17
MINQ3 9:0210Turnover17–17
SEAQ3 8:50615Field goal17–20
MINQ3 5:46527Punt17–20
SEAQ3 2:59576Touchdown17–27
MINQ3 0:0520Turnover17–27
SEAQ4 14:55325Touchdown17–34
MINQ4 13:30375Touchdown24–34
SEAQ4 12:49747Turnover24–34
MINQ4 9:34942Touchdown30–34
SEAQ4 7:14520Punt30–34
MINQ4 3:27526Turnover on downs30–34
SEAQ4 2:27624Field goal30–37
MINQ4 0:2100Turnover30–37
SEAQ4 0:1400Turnover30–37

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins22/3827621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook9293.21
Stefon Diggs12727.00
Alexander Mattison4225.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laquon Treadwell12581
Alexander Mattison45510
Kyle Rudolph46501
Dalvin Cook34350
Stefon Diggs49250
Tyler Conklin2280
Irv Smith1360
Bisi Johnson1310

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson21/3124021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson231024.41
Rashaad Penny15744.91
Travis Homer12929.00
Russell Wilson4133.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf67750
David Moore24651
Jacob Hollister68440
Rashaad Penny45331
Josh Gordon11100
Chris Carson1270
Jaron Brown1160
Tyler Lockett0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.7%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-0.50