Closing spread
SEA -2.5
Total
48
Model margin
-0.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.056EPA / play+0.018
- 42.1%Success rate45.5%
- +0.177EPA / dropback+0.119
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.134
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.6%
- +3.53CPOE+7.05
- 44.0%Third-down rate39.1%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
- 2.31Points / drive1.86
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 22/38 | 276 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 2 | 58 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 4 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 9 | 25 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Bisi Johnson | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 21/31 | 240 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 23 | 102 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Rashaad Penny | 15 | 74 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| David Moore | 2 | 4 | 65 | 1 |
| Jacob Hollister | 6 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 4 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Josh Gordon | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.50