Closing spread
SEA -6.5
Total
54
Model margin
+2.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play+0.105
- 49.1%Success rate48.8%
- +0.175EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.025EPA / rush-0.013
- 11.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- +4.45CPOE+6.78
- 41.2%Third-down rate39.6%
- 74.1%Red-zone TD rate72.6%
- 2.30Points / drive2.52
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 27/39 | 249 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 20 | 112 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 17 | 65 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Mike Boone | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 9 | 13 | 80 | 2 |
| Irv Smith | 4 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Bisi Johnson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Chad Beebe | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/32 | 217 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 58 | 11.6 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Travis Homer | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 11 | 93 | 2 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 6 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1 |
| Freddie Swain | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| David Moore | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.41
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.12