2020 · Week 5

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

26·27

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

SEA -6.5

Total

54

Model margin

+2.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.089EPA / play+0.105
  • 49.1%Success rate48.8%
  • +0.175EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.025EPA / rush-0.013
  • 11.4%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +4.45CPOE+6.78
  • 41.2%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 74.1%Red-zone TD rate72.6%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.52
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13MIN @ SEA0–26SEA
2024 · W16MIN @ SEA27–24MIN
2021 · W3SEA @ MIN17–30MIN
2019 · W13MIN @ SEA30–37SEA
2018 · W14MIN @ SEA7–21SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ MIN10–9SEA
2015 · W13SEA @ MIN38–7SEA
2013 · W11MIN @ SEA20–41SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–SEA
MINQ1 15:001277Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 8:48843Punt7–0
MINQ1 3:461774Field goal10–0
SEAQ2 8:33517Punt10–0
MINQ2 5:2839Punt10–0
SEAQ2 3:143-15Punt10–0
MINQ2 1:471057Field goal13–0
SEAQ2 0:10221End of half13–0
SEAQ3 15:0039Punt13–0
MINQ3 13:0531Punt13–0
SEAQ3 11:37458Touchdown13–7
MINQ3 9:5543Turnover13–7
SEAQ3 8:58215Touchdown13–14
MINQ3 8:1910Turnover13–20
SEAQ3 8:09129Touchdown13–21
MINQ3 8:021172Touchdown19–21
SEAQ3 3:39735Punt19–21
MINQ3 0:191592Touchdown26–21
SEAQ4 7:0858Turnover26–21
MINQ4 5:45854Turnover on downs26–21
SEAQ4 1:571394Touchdown26–27
MINQ4 0:15210End of half26–27

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins27/3924921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison201125.60
Dalvin Cook17653.81
Mike Boone2199.50
Adam Thielen133.00
Kirk Cousins122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen913802
Irv Smith45640
Dalvin Cook55240
Alexander Mattison33240
Justin Jefferson35230
Bisi Johnson11130
Chad Beebe12110
Kyle Rudolph12100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson20/3221731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson55811.60
Chris Carson8526.51
Travis Homer3144.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf611932
Tyler Lockett45440
Chris Carson67270
Greg Olsen11200
Will Dissly11191
Freddie Swain22140
David Moore0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.1%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

4.69%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.8%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.12