2015 · WC

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

10·9

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

TCF Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · -6°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

SEA -4

Total

40

Model margin

+0.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapVikings
  • +0.105EPA / play+0.022
  • 47.1%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.255EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.013
  • 10.9%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +7.64CPOE+2.87
  • 47.8%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 2.18Points / drive1.94
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. MIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13MIN @ SEA0–26SEA
2024 · W16MIN @ SEA27–24MIN
2021 · W3SEA @ MIN17–30MIN
2020 · W5MIN @ SEA26–27SEA
2019 · W13MIN @ SEA30–37SEA
2018 · W14MIN @ SEA7–21SEA
2015 · W13SEA @ MIN38–7SEA
2013 · W11MIN @ SEA20–41SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–MIN
MINQ1 15:001238Punt0–0
SEAQ1 7:5547Turnover on downs0–0
MINQ1 6:53925Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 1:01729Punt0–3
MINQ2 11:4636Punt0–3
SEAQ2 10:10743Turnover on downs0–3
MINQ2 5:42532Punt0–3
SEAQ2 2:4867Punt0–3
MINQ2 1:0300End of half0–3
SEAQ3 15:001040Turnover0–3
MINQ3 9:49413Field goal0–6
SEAQ3 7:0430Punt0–6
MINQ3 4:41813Field goal0–9
SEAQ3 0:02875Touchdown7–9
MINQ4 11:37213Turnover7–9
SEAQ4 10:37612Field goal10–9
MINQ4 8:0435Punt10–9
SEAQ4 5:5339Punt10–9
MINQ4 4:1457Punt10–9
SEAQ4 2:1335Punt10–9
MINQ4 1:42633Missed field goal10–9
SEAQ4 0:2200End of half10–9

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson13/2614211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christine Michael21703.30
Russell Wilson5214.20
Fred Jackson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin57421
Tyler Lockett15350
Fred Jackson25190
Jermaine Kearse34180
Christine Michael11140
Kevin Smith11140
Chase Coffman0300

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater17/2414600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson23452.00
Jerick McKinnon273.50
Stefon Diggs166.00
Teddy Bridgewater300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs46260
Kyle Rudolph11240
Jerick McKinnon35220
MyCole Pruitt22220
Adrian Peterson22130
Matt Asiata11130
Mike Wallace11100
Jarius Wright1390
Adam Thielen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.9%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.32