Closing spread
SEA -4
Total
40
Model margin
+0.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play+0.022
- 47.1%Success rate40.7%
- +0.255EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.013
- 10.9%Explosive rate9.6%
- +7.64CPOE+2.87
- 47.8%Third-down rate39.2%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 2.18Points / drive1.94
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. MIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 13/26 | 142 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christine Michael | 21 | 70 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 5 | 7 | 42 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Chase Coffman | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 17/24 | 146 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 23 | 45 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.32