2025 · Week 13

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Max Brosmer

0·26

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Sam Darnold

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

SEA -12.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+5.3est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.094EPA / play+0.036
  • 43.3%Success rate46.6%
  • -0.115EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.076
  • 8.4%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -2.84CPOE+4.54
  • 32.4%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.22
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16MIN @ SEA27–24MIN
2021 · W3SEA @ MIN17–30MIN
2020 · W5MIN @ SEA26–27SEA
2019 · W13MIN @ SEA30–37SEA
2018 · W14MIN @ SEA7–21SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ MIN10–9SEA
2015 · W13SEA @ MIN38–7SEA
2013 · W11MIN @ SEA20–41SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–SEA
MINQ1 15:0062Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:111022Punt0–0
MINQ1 5:47421Punt0–0
SEAQ1 3:2731Punt0–0
MINQ1 2:2832Punt0–0
SEAQ1 1:261453Field goal0–3
MINQ2 7:10418Punt0–3
SEAQ2 5:261-9Turnover0–3
MINQ2 5:2149Opp touchdown0–10
MINQ2 2:593-3Punt0–10
SEAQ2 0:58617Field goal0–13
MINQ2 0:0800End of half0–13
SEAQ3 15:00834Field goal0–16
MINQ3 11:14528Turnover0–16
SEAQ3 8:411137Field goal0–19
MINQ3 3:1657Turnover0–19
SEAQ3 1:02526Punt0–19
MINQ4 13:2624Turnover0–19
SEAQ4 12:52632Touchdown0–26
MINQ4 9:11862Turnover0–26
MINQ4 5:3350Turnover on downs0–26
SEAQ4 3:1036Punt0–26
MINQ4 0:51213End of half0–26

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Max Brosmer19/3012604

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Mason6477.80
Zavier Scott3175.70
Aaron Jones630.50
Max Brosmer1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson66590
Jordan Addison510360
Aaron Jones44220
Justin Jefferson2640
Zavier Scott1140
Jordan Mason1110
Jalen Nailor0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold14/2612800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III13564.30
Zach Charbonnet14523.71
Rashid Shaheed199.00
Myles Gaskin362.00
AJ Barner122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
AJ Barner45350
Cooper Kupp34240
Jaxon Smith-Njigba24230
Cody White11210
Kenneth Walker III34180
Rashid Shaheed1370
Elijah Arroyo0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.2%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.18
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.32