Closing spread
SEA -12.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play+0.036
- 43.3%Success rate46.6%
- -0.115EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.076
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.7%
- -2.84CPOE+4.54
- 32.4%Third-down rate40.9%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.75Points / drive2.22
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Brosmer | 19/30 | 126 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Zavier Scott | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Max Brosmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 6 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 5 | 10 | 36 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Zavier Scott | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 14/26 | 128 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Barner | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Cody White | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.32