2003 · Week 14 · Division
Final
Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 27°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
36
Model margin
+2.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.061EPA / play-0.123
- 40.4%Success rate41.7%
- -0.070EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.188
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- 34.4%Third-down rate32.9%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate39.7%
- 1.45Points / drive0.93
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.3%
- +0.048EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hasselbeck | 13/19 | 154 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trung Canidate | 19 | 69 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 12 | 19 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tim Hasselbeck | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Palmer | 7/11 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 5/14 | 62 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 16 | 99 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.77