2003 · Week 15 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
34
Model margin
-0.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.085EPA / play-0.061
- 39.6%Success rate40.4%
- -0.053EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.123EPA / rush-0.048
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.6%
- 36.8%Third-down rate34.4%
- 50.3%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.23Points / drive1.45
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.125EPA / play allowed+0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 10/24 | 108 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 33 | 189 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Erik Bickerstaff | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hasselbeck | 6/26 | 56 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rock Cartwright | 21 | 94 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tim Hasselbeck | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.2%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.31