2003 · Week 15 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
34
Model margin
-0.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.085EPA / play-0.061
- 39.6%Success rate40.4%
- -0.053EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.123EPA / rush-0.048
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.6%
- 36.8%Third-down rate34.4%
- 50.3%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.23Points / drive1.45
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.125EPA / play allowed+0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 39–16 since 1999
DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q1 9:26 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 7:21 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q1 5:43 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 3:59 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 2:55 | 4 | 12 | Turnover on downs | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q1 0:27 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q2 13:08 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q2 12:13 | 9 | 36 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q2 7:26 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 7–0 |
| WAS | Q2 4:57 | 7 | 19 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q2 2:06 | 3 | 9 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| WAS | Q2 1:52 | 2 | 20 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| DAL | Q2 1:16 | 3 | 9 | Missed field goal | 14–0 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 14–0 |
| DAL | Q3 13:52 | 12 | 63 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| WAS | Q3 7:14 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–0 |
| DAL | Q3 6:20 | 4 | 18 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| WAS | Q3 4:34 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–0 |
| DAL | Q3 2:55 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–0 |
| WAS | Q3 1:26 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 17–0 |
| DAL | Q3 0:05 | 10 | 51 | Field goal | 20–0 |
| WAS | Q4 9:16 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 20–0 |
| DAL | Q4 8:08 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 20–0 |
| WAS | Q4 5:54 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 20–0 |
| DAL | Q4 5:42 | 3 | 53 | Touchdown | 27–0 |
| WAS | Q4 4:05 | 7 | 11 | Punt | 27–0 |
| DAL | Q4 1:48 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–0 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 10/24 | 108 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 33 | 189 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Erik Bickerstaff | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hasselbeck | 6/26 | 56 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rock Cartwright | 21 | 94 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Tim Hasselbeck | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.2%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.31