Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
6.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.079EPA / play-0.100
- 45.9%Success rate38.3%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.156
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.016
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- 46.9%Third-down rate33.9%
- 62.7%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 1.96Points / drive1.44
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.008EPA / play allowed-0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 10 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q1 13:10 | 7 | 31 | Turnover on downs | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 9:32 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q1 6:58 | 10 | 41 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 0:42 | 11 | 76 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| MIN | Q2 10:53 | 19 | 68 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q2 1:10 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–10 |
| MIN | Q2 0:38 | 3 | 44 | End of half | 3–10 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q3 11:39 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–10 |
| MIN | Q3 11:13 | 8 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 3–10 |
| CHI | Q3 7:38 | 7 | 25 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| MIN | Q3 4:09 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–13 |
| CHI | Q3 2:33 | 9 | 48 | Missed field goal | 3–13 |
| MIN | Q4 13:27 | 7 | 54 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| CHI | Q4 10:23 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 10–13 |
| MIN | Q4 9:19 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–13 |
| CHI | Q4 7:46 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 10–13 |
| MIN | Q4 4:53 | 10 | 79 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| CHI | Q4 1:02 | 3 | 32 | End of half | 10–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 24/34 | 222 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onterrio Smith | 27 | 148 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 13/30 | 157 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Bobby Wade | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
6.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.80
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.93