Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
6.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.079EPA / play-0.100
- 45.9%Success rate38.3%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.156
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.016
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- 46.9%Third-down rate33.9%
- 62.7%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
- 1.96Points / drive1.44
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.008EPA / play allowed-0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 24/34 | 222 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onterrio Smith | 27 | 148 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 13/30 | 157 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Bobby Wade | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
6.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.80
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.93