Closing spread
NO -7.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+8.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.123EPA / play-0.009
- 41.7%Success rate42.3%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.106
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.5%
- 32.9%Third-down rate46.4%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 0.93Points / drive1.71
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.018
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 9–6 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.7 points. NO are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Palmer | 15/26 | 140 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 8 | 37 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jesse Palmer | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Delvin Joyce | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| David Tyree | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 26/35 | 296 | 5 | 0 |
| Todd Bouman | 2/4 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 15 | 80 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Todd Bouman | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.2%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.71
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.16