Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
36
Model margin
+1.9est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play-0.013
- 41.6%Success rate41.4%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.040
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- 36.1%Third-down rate40.0%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.33Points / drive1.47
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.051EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 10–6 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. NYJ are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 56 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q1 8:20 | 10 | 41 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 2:47 | 9 | 35 | Punt | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q2 12:40 | 8 | 41 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 8:26 | 8 | 25 | Punt | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q2 4:07 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 2:34 | 10 | 50 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–6 |
| NYJ | Q3 12:35 | 7 | 54 | Punt | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q3 9:09 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–6 |
| NYJ | Q3 8:07 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q3 6:23 | 10 | 36 | Punt | 0–6 |
| NYJ | Q3 0:31 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q4 14:02 | 9 | 37 | Missed field goal | 0–6 |
| NYJ | Q4 10:18 | 4 | 70 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q4 8:00 | 12 | 45 | Turnover on downs | 0–6 |
| NYJ | Q4 2:44 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–6 |
| PIT | Q4 2:13 | 4 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 0–6 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:52 | 2 | 12 | Punt | 0–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 16/38 | 137 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 16 | 68 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 15/25 | 144 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 30 | 174 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.94