Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
36
Model margin
+1.9est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.084EPA / play-0.013
- 41.6%Success rate41.4%
- -0.022EPA / dropback+0.040
- -0.170EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- 36.1%Third-down rate40.0%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate51.3%
- 1.33Points / drive1.47
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.051EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 10–6 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 34.9 points. NYJ are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 16/38 | 137 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 16 | 68 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 15/25 | 144 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 30 | 174 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.94