Closing spread
STL -7
Total
52
Model margin
+1.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:26 | 2 | -4 | Safety | 2–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:37 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 2–0 |
| LA | Q1 10:02 | 16 | 62 | Touchdown | 2–7 |
| SEA | Q1 3:05 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 2–7 |
| LA | Q1 2:47 | 3 | 24 | Touchdown | 2–14 |
| SEA | Q1 1:10 | 4 | 32 | Punt | 2–14 |
| LA | Q2 14:26 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 2–14 |
| SEA | Q2 11:00 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 9–14 |
| LA | Q2 7:53 | 7 | 56 | Touchdown | 9–21 |
| SEA | Q2 5:06 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 9–21 |
| LA | Q2 2:59 | 3 | 10 | Turnover | 9–21 |
| SEA | Q2 2:07 | 8 | 33 | Field goal | 12–21 |
| LA | Q2 0:18 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 12–21 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 12–21 |
| SEA | Q3 11:45 | 13 | 55 | Field goal | 15–21 |
| LA | Q3 5:39 | 11 | 56 | Field goal | 15–24 |
| SEA | Q4 14:18 | 7 | 56 | Touchdown | 22–24 |
| LA | Q4 10:18 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 22–24 |
| SEA | Q4 8:39 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 22–24 |
| LA | Q4 5:57 | 9 | 57 | Field goal | 22–27 |
| SEA | Q4 1:37 | 7 | 46 | Turnover on downs | 22–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 21/37 | 246 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 25 | 126 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
4.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.21
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.