Closing spread
SEA -15.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.154EPA / play+0.070
- 39.4%Success rate46.1%
- -0.108EPA / dropback+0.148
- -0.236EPA / rush-0.039
- 7.0%Explosive rate10.5%
- 37.2%Third-down rate46.8%
- 46.3%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
- 0.93Points / drive1.98
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.075EPA / play allowed-0.012
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 25/40 | 274 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Damien Anderson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/24 | 179 | 1 | 1 |
| Trent Dilfer | 2/3 | 11 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 21 | 135 | 6.4 | 2 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.31