Closing spread
SEA -15.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.154EPA / play+0.070
- 39.4%Success rate46.1%
- -0.108EPA / dropback+0.148
- -0.236EPA / rush-0.039
- 7.0%Explosive rate10.5%
- 37.2%Third-down rate46.8%
- 46.3%Red-zone TD rate68.2%
- 0.93Points / drive1.98
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.075EPA / play allowed-0.012
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 9:58 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 8:00 | 7 | 77 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 5:23 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 3:19 | 5 | 40 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| ARI | Q1 0:59 | 7 | 54 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| SEA | Q2 12:42 | 4 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| ARI | Q2 11:06 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q2 9:29 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–21 |
| ARI | Q2 7:47 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q2 6:44 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| ARI | Q2 5:56 | 3 | -3 | Missed field goal | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q2 3:56 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| ARI | Q2 3:45 | 9 | 28 | Missed field goal | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q2 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–21 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q3 13:55 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 3–21 |
| ARI | Q3 11:17 | 10 | 35 | Punt | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q3 5:23 | 4 | 24 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| ARI | Q3 3:25 | 11 | 31 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q3 0:20 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–21 |
| ARI | Q4 13:37 | 2 | 70 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| SEA | Q4 12:49 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 10–21 |
| ARI | Q4 11:39 | 7 | 22 | Turnover on downs | 10–21 |
| SEA | Q4 8:07 | 11 | 36 | Touchdown | 10–28 |
| ARI | Q4 3:12 | 10 | 39 | End of half | 10–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 25/40 | 274 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Damien Anderson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/24 | 179 | 1 | 1 |
| Trent Dilfer | 2/3 | 11 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 21 | 135 | 6.4 | 2 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.31