Closing spread
DAL -12.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+7.9est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.123EPA / play-0.085
- 41.7%Success rate39.6%
- -0.087EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.188EPA / rush-0.123
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- 32.9%Third-down rate36.8%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate50.3%
- 0.93Points / drive1.23
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.125
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 67 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NYG | Q1 12:52 | 8 | 45 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| DAL | Q1 9:03 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–3 |
| NYG | Q1 6:55 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–3 |
| DAL | Q1 5:28 | 6 | 86 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| NYG | Q1 2:22 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 3–10 |
| DAL | Q2 14:49 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NYG | Q2 11:41 | 9 | 18 | Punt | 3–10 |
| DAL | Q2 7:04 | 9 | 35 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NYG | Q2 1:57 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–10 |
| DAL | Q2 0:26 | 4 | 14 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–13 |
| DAL | Q3 13:20 | 5 | 19 | Field goal | 3–16 |
| NYG | Q3 10:03 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 3–16 |
| DAL | Q3 8:02 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–16 |
| NYG | Q3 6:29 | 7 | 47 | Turnover on downs | 3–16 |
| DAL | Q3 3:07 | 12 | 52 | Field goal | 3–19 |
| NYG | Q4 11:23 | 6 | 3 | Punt | 3–19 |
| DAL | Q4 9:08 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–19 |
| NYG | Q4 7:31 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–19 |
| DAL | Q4 5:25 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 3–19 |
| NYG | Q4 2:10 | 8 | 42 | End of half | 3–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Palmer | 18/32 | 190 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Jesse Palmer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 17/25 | 240 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Erik Bickerstaff | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.7%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.66
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.71
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.94