Closing spread
PIT -6.5
Total
42
Model margin
+2.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.7 points. PIT are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 52 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 8:51 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 7:21 | 12 | 81 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q1 0:10 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–14 |
| PIT | Q2 14:05 | 3 | 43 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| LAC | Q2 12:49 | 13 | 59 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| PIT | Q2 7:05 | 6 | 36 | Punt | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q2 3:57 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 7–21 |
| PIT | Q2 1:49 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q2 1:17 | 4 | 30 | Field goal | 10–21 |
| PIT | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–21 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| PIT | Q3 12:01 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 17–21 |
| LAC | Q3 10:01 | 3 | -5 | Turnover | 17–21 |
| PIT | Q3 9:09 | 2 | 20 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| LAC | Q3 8:25 | 5 | 27 | Turnover | 17–28 |
| PIT | Q3 5:37 | 12 | 67 | Field goal | 17–31 |
| LAC | Q4 14:15 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 24–31 |
| PIT | Q4 10:01 | 8 | 44 | Field goal | 24–34 |
| LAC | Q4 5:04 | 2 | 12 | Opp touchdown | 24–40 |
| LAC | Q4 4:29 | 9 | 45 | Turnover on downs | 24–40 |
| PIT | Q4 3:05 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 24–40 |
| LAC | Q4 1:20 | 4 | 13 | Turnover on downs | 24–40 |
| PIT | Q4 0:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–40 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 11/18 | 160 | 3 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 32 | 115 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.78
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.