Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutAntwan ApplewhiteLBHamstring· DNP
- OutNick HardwickCAnkle· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutTravis JohnsonDEGroin· DNP
- QuestionableShawne MerrimanLBGroin· Full
- ProbableMike ScifresPGroin· Limited
- ProbableAntoine CasonCBGroin· Full
- ProbableLaDainian TomlinsonRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableLouis VasquezGKnee· Full
Steelers
- OutDavid JohnsonTEAnkle· DNP
- OutTroy PolamaluSKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulWillie ParkerRBToe· DNP
- DNPHines WardWRNot Injury Related
- DNPKeiwan RatliffCBIllness
- ProbableJustin HartwigCAnkle· Full
- ProbableMatt SpaethTEHip· Full
Win probability
- Steelers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.7 points. PIT are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 79 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 11:49 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 10:35 | 12 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q1 4:08 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–14 |
| PIT | Q1 1:20 | 10 | 57 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q2 9:40 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 0–14 |
| PIT | Q2 7:35 | 14 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| LAC | Q2 1:28 | 4 | 24 | Punt | 0–21 |
| PIT | Q2 0:27 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–21 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 0–21 |
| PIT | Q3 12:49 | 8 | 81 | Touchdown | 0–28 |
| LAC | Q3 7:48 | 13 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| PIT | Q3 1:33 | 7 | 12 | Punt | 7–28 |
| LAC | Q4 13:39 | 3 | -9 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| PIT | Q4 12:37 | 8 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–35 |
| LAC | Q4 7:18 | 4 | 67 | Touchdown | 21–35 |
| PIT | Q4 5:48 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 21–35 |
| LAC | Q4 5:44 | 4 | 28 | Touchdown | 28–35 |
| PIT | Q4 4:31 | 10 | 61 | Field goal | 28–38 |
| LAC | Q4 0:43 | 1 | -5 | Turnover | 28–38 |
| PIT | Q4 0:26 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 26/33 | 333 | 2 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1/1 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 29 | 165 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 8 | 11 | 113 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 8 | 9 | 70 | 2 |
| Santonio Holmes | 4 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.