Closing spread
PIT -5.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.7 points. PIT are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 26/33 | 333 | 2 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1/1 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 29 | 165 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 8 | 11 | 113 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 8 | 9 | 70 | 2 |
| Santonio Holmes | 4 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.68
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.