Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.126EPA / play+0.102
- 47.0%Success rate47.5%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.194
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.112
- 12.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- +3.54CPOE+1.39
- 39.7%Third-down rate43.9%
- 70.7%Red-zone TD rate73.7%
- 2.31Points / drive2.23
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.7 points. PIT are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 26/36 | 299 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jackson | 8 | 63 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 13 | 21 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 14 | 19 | 148 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 3 | 52 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 2 | 2 | 44 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 29/45 | 281 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 10 | 13 | 154 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 6 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 4 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| James Conner | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.63
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.11