2018 · Week 13

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

33·30

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

53.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapSteelers
  • +0.126EPA / play+0.102
  • 47.0%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.194
  • +0.001EPA / rush-0.112
  • 12.5%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +3.54CPOE+1.39
  • 39.7%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 70.7%Red-zone TD rate73.7%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.23
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.7 points. PIT are 9-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10PIT @ LAC10–25CHARGERS
2024 · W3LAC @ PIT10–20PIT
2021 · W11PIT @ LAC37–41CHARGERS
2019 · W6PIT @ LAC24–17PIT
2015 · W5PIT @ SD24–20PIT
2012 · W14SD @ PIT34–24CHARGERS
2009 · W4SD @ PIT28–38PIT
2008 · playoffsSD @ PIT24–35PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–PIT
LACQ1 15:00641Missed field goal0–0
PITQ1 11:19458Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 9:203-9Punt0–7
PITQ1 7:42720Touchdown0–13
LACQ1 4:41675Touchdown7–13
PITQ1 1:041453Turnover7–13
LACQ2 10:36611Punt7–13
PITQ2 7:2439Punt7–13
LACQ2 5:1337Punt7–13
PITQ2 3:3934Field goal7–16
LACQ2 2:40514Punt7–16
PITQ2 1:35774Touchdown7–23
LACQ2 0:1711End of half7–23
PITQ3 15:00838Punt7–23
LACQ3 9:501498Touchdown15–23
PITQ3 1:43612Opp touchdown23–23
PITQ4 12:5235Punt23–23
LACQ4 12:00779Touchdown30–23
PITQ4 8:091363Touchdown30–30
LACQ4 4:101054Field goal33–30

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers26/3629920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Jackson8637.91
Austin Ekeler13211.60
Travis Benjamin111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen14191481
Mike Williams33520
Travis Benjamin22441
Austin Ekeler58220
Justin Jackson11190
Tyrell Williams12140
Antonio Gates0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger29/4528121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner15604.02
Jaylen Samuels252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown10131541
JuJu Smith-Schuster69490
Vance McDonald47280
Jaylen Samuels33201
James Conner34140
Ryan Switzer2290
Jesse James1370
Darrius Heyward-Bey0100
Justin Hunter0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.1%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.11