2025 · Week 10

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

10·25

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapChargers
  • +0.027EPA / play-0.016
  • 44.1%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback+0.021
  • -0.001EPA / rush-0.080
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +0.58CPOE+0.01
  • 40.4%Third-down rate46.7%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.10
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.7 points. LAC are 5-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W3LAC @ PIT10–20PIT
2021 · W11PIT @ LAC37–41CHARGERS
2019 · W6PIT @ LAC24–17PIT
2018 · W13LAC @ PIT33–30CHARGERS
2015 · W5PIT @ SD24–20PIT
2012 · W14SD @ PIT34–24CHARGERS
2009 · W4SD @ PIT28–38PIT
2008 · playoffsSD @ PIT24–35PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–LAC
PITQ1 15:00311Punt0–0
LACQ1 13:3031Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:0435Field goal3–0
LACQ1 10:25718Punt3–0
PITQ1 6:473-6Safety3–2
LACQ1 5:0936Punt3–2
PITQ1 3:11961Missed field goal3–2
LACQ2 13:101251Field goal3–5
PITQ2 7:3232Punt3–5
LACQ2 5:49520Punt3–5
PITQ2 3:0024Turnover3–5
LACQ2 2:09738Touchdown3–12
PITQ2 0:1238End of half3–12
LACQ3 15:0079Punt3–12
PITQ3 11:44419Punt3–12
LACQ3 8:39536Field goal3–15
PITQ3 6:0732Punt3–15
LACQ3 5:09737Missed field goal3–15
PITQ3 0:45845Turnover on downs3–15
LACQ4 12:41690Touchdown3–22
PITQ4 9:2635Turnover3–22
LACQ4 8:3941Punt3–22
LACQ4 6:253-3Field goal3–25
PITQ4 4:54865Touchdown10–25
LACQ4 2:57311End of half10–25

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers16/3116112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren14705.00
Kaleb Johnson231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf37350
Roman Wilson23351
Pat Freiermuth33330
Jaylen Warren22210
Darnell Washington11150
Calvin Austin III27140
Jonnu Smith1240
Kenny Gainwell2340

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert20/3322010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kimani Vidal25953.81
Justin Herbert5193.80
Jaret Patterson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ladd McConkey461071
Quentin Johnston510420
Keenan Allen25190
Kimani Vidal11130
Oronde Gadsden II36130
Tyler Conklin11120
Tucker Fisk1170
Tre Harris2240
Derius Davis1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.43