Closing spread
LAC -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.027EPA / play-0.016
- 44.1%Success rate43.6%
- +0.046EPA / dropback+0.021
- -0.001EPA / rush-0.080
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- +0.58CPOE+0.01
- 40.4%Third-down rate46.7%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 2.11Points / drive2.10
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.7 points. LAC are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 16/31 | 161 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Roman Wilson | 2 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 2 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 20/33 | 220 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimani Vidal | 25 | 95 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 4 | 6 | 107 | 1 |
| Quentin Johnston | 5 | 10 | 42 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 3 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Tucker Fisk | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tre Harris | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.43