Closing spread
SD -4
Total
45.5
Model margin
+6.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.7 points. SD are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 13/26 | 203 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 21 | 111 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Wheaton | 1 | 3 | 72 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 4 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+5.89
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+6.02
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.