Closing spread
SD -4
Total
45.5
Model margin
+6.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Steelers
- OutBen RoethlisbergerQBKnee· DNP
- OutRyan ShazierLBShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableCortez AllenCBKnee· Limited
- ProbableDaniel McCullersDTKnee· Full
- ProbableMarkus WheatonWRAnkle· Full
- ProbableMatt SpaethTEHand· Full
- ProbableRoss VentroneSHamstring· Full
Chargers
- OutCraig MagerCBHamstring· DNP
- OutOrlando FranklinGAnkle· DNP
- OutSteve JohnsonWRHamstring· DNP
- OutTourek WilliamsLBFoot· DNP
- DoubtfulKing DunlapTConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon FlowersCBConcussion· Full
- QuestionableChris WattCGroin· Limited
- QuestionableD.J. FlukerGAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJacoby JonesWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJahleel AddaeSAnkle· Full
- QuestionableJason VerrettCBFoot· Full
- QuestionableMalcom FloydWRConcussion· Full
- ProbableChris HairstonTAnkle· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PIT lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.7 points. SD are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:12 | 5 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 9:50 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 6:34 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 3:48 | 7 | 56 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 0:06 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q2 13:24 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 11:50 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q2 10:02 | 8 | 47 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 4:24 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q2 2:36 | 5 | 33 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 1:26 | 8 | 51 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q2 0:02 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 26 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q3 13:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q3 10:54 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q3 8:48 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q3 7:00 | 9 | 49 | Opp touchdown | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q3 3:21 | 7 | 58 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| PIT | Q4 14:49 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q4 13:52 | 12 | 64 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| PIT | Q4 8:02 | 1 | 72 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| LAC | Q4 7:42 | 11 | 44 | Field goal | 17–20 |
| PIT | Q4 2:56 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 13/26 | 203 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 21 | 111 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Wheaton | 1 | 3 | 72 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 4 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.9%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+5.89
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+6.02
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.