2021 · Week 11

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

37·41

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -5.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapChargers
  • -0.051EPA / play+0.088
  • 40.2%Success rate47.4%
  • -0.037EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.075
  • 7.1%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -2.66CPOE-0.71
  • 39.0%Third-down rate45.7%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate68.6%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.55
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.7 points. LAC are 5-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10PIT @ LAC10–25CHARGERS
2024 · W3LAC @ PIT10–20PIT
2019 · W6PIT @ LAC24–17PIT
2018 · W13LAC @ PIT33–30CHARGERS
2015 · W5PIT @ SD24–20PIT
2012 · W14SD @ PIT34–24CHARGERS
2009 · W4SD @ PIT28–38PIT
2008 · playoffsSD @ PIT24–35PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–LAC
PITQ1 15:001342Field goal3–0
LACQ1 8:291585Touchdown3–7
PITQ1 2:091368Turnover on downs3–7
LACQ2 10:361298Touchdown3–14
PITQ2 3:42764Touchdown10–14
LACQ2 1:09957Field goal10–17
PITQ2 0:0200End of half10–17
LACQ3 15:00675Touchdown10–24
PITQ3 11:5032Punt10–24
LACQ3 10:081261Field goal10–27
PITQ3 3:40957Field goal13–27
LACQ4 14:1037Punt13–27
PITQ4 12:335-1Touchdown20–27
LACQ4 11:35769Touchdown20–34
PITQ4 8:48975Touchdown27–34
LACQ4 4:4920Turnover27–34
PITQ4 4:3635Touchdown34–34
LACQ4 4:2349Turnover on downs34–34
PITQ4 3:4337Field goal37–34
LACQ4 3:24375Touchdown37–41
PITQ4 2:094-19Turnover on downs37–41
LACQ4 1:1500End of half37–41

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger28/4427330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris12393.31
Benny Snell273.50
Ray-Ray McCloud155.00
Kalen Ballage133.00
Chase Claypool210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson7131011
Chase Claypool59930
Eric Ebron33241
Najee Harris56200
Ray-Ray McCloud22120
James Washington23120
Pat Freiermuth47111
Kalen Ballage0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert30/4138231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Herbert99010.00
Austin Ekeler11504.52
Josh Palmer166.00
Larry Rountree III252.50
Andre Roberts144.00
Justin Jackson122.00
Jalen Guyton122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen9131120
Mike Williams56971
Austin Ekeler67652
Donald Parham45380
Jared Cook35280
Jalen Guyton12180
Josh Palmer11170
Tre' McKitty1170
Justin Jackson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

3.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.59
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.30