Closing spread
LAC -5.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.088
- 40.2%Success rate47.4%
- -0.037EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.075
- 7.1%Explosive rate7.5%
- -2.66CPOE-0.71
- 39.0%Third-down rate45.7%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate68.6%
- 1.65Points / drive2.55
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.7 points. LAC are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 28/44 | 273 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Benny Snell | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 7 | 13 | 101 | 1 |
| Chase Claypool | 5 | 9 | 93 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 3 | 24 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 5 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| James Washington | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 7 | 11 | 1 |
| Kalen Ballage | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 30/41 | 382 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 9 | 90 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Larry Rountree III | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 9 | 13 | 112 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 5 | 6 | 97 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 7 | 65 | 2 |
| Donald Parham | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Tre' McKitty | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.9%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.59
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.30