Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
36
Model margin
-0.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play-0.027
- 42.3%Success rate40.7%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.124
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.8%
- +1.69CPOE+3.65
- 40.1%Third-down rate39.7%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 2.25Points / drive1.86
- 0.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.7 points. PIT are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 12/18 | 125 | 1 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 2/2 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quentin Johnston | 2 | 2 | 44 | 1 |
| Ladd McConkey | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Simi Fehoko | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 25/32 | 245 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 18 | 70 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Austin III | 4 | 5 | 95 | 1 |
| George Pickens | 5 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 5 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.55
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.14
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.70