2024 · Week 3

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

10·20

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Justin Fields

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

36

Model margin

-0.7est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapSteelers
  • +0.044EPA / play-0.027
  • 42.3%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.124
  • 9.2%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +1.69CPOE+3.65
  • 40.1%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.86
  • 0.8%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.7 points. PIT are 9-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10PIT @ LAC10–25CHARGERS
2021 · W11PIT @ LAC37–41CHARGERS
2019 · W6PIT @ LAC24–17PIT
2018 · W13LAC @ PIT33–30CHARGERS
2015 · W5PIT @ SD24–20PIT
2012 · W14SD @ PIT34–24CHARGERS
2009 · W4SD @ PIT28–38PIT
2008 · playoffsSD @ PIT24–35PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–PIT
LACQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:3033Punt0–0
LACQ1 10:39415Punt0–0
PITQ1 7:483-8Punt0–0
LACQ1 5:34559Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 2:461370Touchdown7–7
LACQ2 10:171160Field goal10–7
PITQ2 3:1336Punt10–7
LACQ2 1:50732Punt10–7
PITQ2 0:44542Missed field goal10–7
LACQ2 0:0110End of half10–7
PITQ3 15:001240Field goal10–10
LACQ3 9:053-7Punt10–10
PITQ3 8:0110Turnover10–10
LACQ3 7:533-4Punt10–10
PITQ3 5:401344Field goal10–13
LACQ4 14:14618Punt10–13
PITQ4 9:45584Touchdown10–20
LACQ4 7:023-14Punt10–20
PITQ4 4:59867End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert12/1812510
Taylor Heinicke2/22400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins15442.90
Gus Edwards393.00
Derius Davis188.00
Justin Herbert100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quentin Johnston22441
Ladd McConkey36440
Will Dissly33190
Simi Fehoko13170
Hayden Hurst22150
J.K. Dobbins33100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields25/3224511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris18703.90
Cordarrelle Patterson4338.30
Justin Fields661.01
Jaylen Warren351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Austin III45951
George Pickens57570
Pat Freiermuth45330
Scott Miller22310
Najee Harris55160
Cordarrelle Patterson35150
Jaylen Warren11-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

7.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.2%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.14
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.70