2012 · Week 14

Final

Chargers

San Diego

QB Philip Rivers

34·24

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 45°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PIT -7

Total

37.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

PIT lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.7 points. PIT are 9-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10PIT @ LAC10–25CHARGERS
2024 · W3LAC @ PIT10–20PIT
2021 · W11PIT @ LAC37–41CHARGERS
2019 · W6PIT @ LAC24–17PIT
2018 · W13LAC @ PIT33–30CHARGERS
2015 · W5PIT @ SD24–20PIT
2009 · W4SD @ PIT28–38PIT
2008 · playoffsSD @ PIT24–35PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSD–PIT
PITQ1 15:00410Punt0–0
LACQ1 13:11512Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:2339Punt0–0
LACQ1 9:151226Field goal3–0
PITQ1 3:06628Punt3–0
LACQ2 14:45930Punt3–0
PITQ2 10:5635Punt3–0
LACQ2 9:5931Punt3–0
PITQ2 9:0148Punt3–0
LACQ2 7:2830Punt3–0
PITQ2 6:353-5Punt3–0
LACQ2 5:18348Touchdown10–0
PITQ2 3:4049Turnover on downs10–0
LACQ2 1:58726Field goal13–0
PITQ2 0:50559Field goal13–3
LACQ3 15:001783Touchdown20–3
PITQ3 5:2810Opp touchdown27–3
PITQ3 5:16780Touchdown27–10
LACQ3 2:331146Punt27–10
PITQ4 11:0126Turnover27–10
LACQ4 10:25217Touchdown34–10
PITQ4 9:461284Touchdown34–17
LACQ4 6:0733Punt34–17
PITQ4 4:273-7Punt34–17
LACQ4 3:3534Punt34–17
PITQ4 2:33754Touchdown34–24
LACQ4 0:5800End of half34–24

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger22/4228531

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Dwyer8324.00
Ben Roethlisberger5316.20
Chris Rainey166.00
Isaac Redman200.00
Mike Wallace100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace7111122
Heath Miller59660
Emmanuel Sanders24360
Antonio Brown49351
Plaxico Burress12180
Jonathan Dwyer34180
Jerricho Cotchery0100
Isaac Redman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

4.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.40

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.