Closing spread
LAC -6
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.136EPA / play+0.036
- 38.5%Success rate47.3%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.257EPA / rush-0.118
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.0%
- -1.51CPOE+3.58
- 34.3%Third-down rate45.5%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.35Points / drive1.99
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.7 points. LAC are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devlin Hodges | 15/20 | 132 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benny Snell | 17 | 75 | 4.4 | 0 |
| James Conner | 16 | 41 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Devlin Hodges | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 7 | 7 | 78 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Johnny Holton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 26/44 | 320 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 8 | 9 | 100 | 2 |
| Mike Williams | 5 | 10 | 72 | 0 |
| Jason Moore | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 2 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Geremy Davis | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.29
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.45