2019 · Week 6

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Devlin Hodges

24·17

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

StubHub Center · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

LAC -6

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapChargers
  • -0.136EPA / play+0.036
  • 38.5%Success rate47.3%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.257EPA / rush-0.118
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -1.51CPOE+3.58
  • 34.3%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 50.2%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.99
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 49.7 points. LAC are 5-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10PIT @ LAC10–25CHARGERS
2024 · W3LAC @ PIT10–20PIT
2021 · W11PIT @ LAC37–41CHARGERS
2018 · W13LAC @ PIT33–30CHARGERS
2015 · W5PIT @ SD24–20PIT
2012 · W14SD @ PIT34–24CHARGERS
2009 · W4SD @ PIT28–38PIT
2008 · playoffsSD @ PIT24–35PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–LAC
LACQ1 15:00420Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:4834Punt0–0
LACQ1 11:0620Opp touchdown7–0
LACQ1 10:51419Turnover7–0
PITQ1 8:52740Touchdown14–0
LACQ1 4:29523Punt14–0
PITQ1 0:431486Touchdown21–0
LACQ2 6:341173Missed field goal21–0
PITQ2 0:3211End of half21–0
PITQ3 15:001546Field goal24–0
LACQ3 8:1238Punt24–0
PITQ3 6:39525Punt24–0
LACQ3 2:591166Field goal24–3
PITQ4 14:00625Turnover24–3
LACQ4 10:361165Touchdown24–10
PITQ4 7:13421Punt24–10
LACQ4 3:53974Touchdown24–17
PITQ4 1:2939Punt24–17
LACQ4 1:0320Turnover24–17
PITQ4 0:411-1End of half24–17

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Devlin Hodges15/2013211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Benny Snell17754.40
James Conner16412.61
Devlin Hodges382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Conner77781
Diontae Johnson22140
Benny Snell11140
Donte Moncrief12110
JuJu Smith-Schuster1370
Vance McDonald1150
Nick Vannett1150
Johnny Holton0100
Ryan Switzer11-20

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers26/4432022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon8182.30
Austin Ekeler5142.80
Philip Rivers100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Henry891002
Mike Williams510720
Jason Moore22430
Keenan Allen26330
Melvin Gordon34300
Virgil Green12150
Austin Ekeler34140
Geremy Davis11130
Travis Benjamin1400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

3.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.7%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.29
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.45