2003 · Week 16

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Tim Hasselbeck

24·27

Bears

Chicago

QB Rex Grossman

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 22mph

Closing spread

CHI -4

Total

35

Model margin

+7.7est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapBears
  • -0.061EPA / play-0.100
  • 40.4%Success rate38.3%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback-0.156
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.016
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 34.4%Third-down rate33.9%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate54.5%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.44
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.6%
  • +0.048EPA / play allowed-0.013

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 10–5 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. CHI are 5-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6CHI @ WAS25–24CHI
2024 · W8CHI @ WAS15–18WAS
2023 · W5CHI @ WAS40–20CHI
2022 · W6WAS @ CHI12–7WAS
2019 · W3CHI @ WAS31–15CHI
2016 · W16WAS @ CHI41–21WAS
2015 · W14WAS @ CHI24–21WAS
2013 · W7CHI @ WAS41–45WAS

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Hasselbeck16/2520920
Rod Gardner1/23610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rock Cartwright13413.20
Tim Hasselbeck351.70
Chad Morton2-2-1.00

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman19/3224921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Thomas321414.41
Stanley Pritchett5336.60
Dez White11212.00
Bobby Wade155.00
Rex Grossman100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +42.9%5.7%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

69.0%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.70
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.67