Closing spread
DAL -1
Total
38
Model margin
+2.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.085EPA / play-0.009
- 39.6%Success rate42.3%
- -0.053EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.123EPA / rush-0.106
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.5%
- 36.8%Third-down rate46.4%
- 50.3%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 1.23Points / drive1.71
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.125EPA / play allowed-0.018
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 10–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 15 | 59 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q1 7:01 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 5:09 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q1 2:22 | 16 | 93 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| NO | Q2 8:50 | 2 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q2 8:23 | 7 | 52 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| NO | Q2 4:43 | 9 | 33 | Punt | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q2 1:02 | 5 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 7–10 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| NO | Q3 14:40 | 6 | 36 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| DAL | Q3 11:57 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 7–13 |
| NO | Q3 8:06 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DAL | Q3 4:54 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 7–13 |
| NO | Q3 3:15 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DAL | Q3 2:17 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 7–13 |
| NO | Q4 13:09 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DAL | Q4 11:03 | 7 | 3 | Punt | 7–13 |
| NO | Q4 7:26 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DAL | Q4 6:01 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–13 |
| NO | Q4 5:01 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DAL | Q4 3:22 | 8 | 52 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| NO | Q4 1:27 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–13 |
| DAL | Q4 0:20 | 3 | 16 | End of half | 7–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 27/47 | 290 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Erik Bickerstaff | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jamar Martin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 15/32 | 243 | 1 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 21 | 49 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.22
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.78